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Update on Japan : Reflation "all in"
Next to the extreme money market measures already been put into action, more measures have been taken to keep the engine running :
1)G7 announcement effect of coordinated intervention :
"In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on March 18, 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets. As we have long stated, excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will monitor exchange markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate."
-Market reaction: strong reversals from risk-of to risk-on :
EUR/JPY weakens from 110 to 115 and $/JPY back above 80 (81,5 - 76,25 low) ; hopefully not a one-off effect.
Strong upward correction on European crude to a new 2011 high of 116,5$ (Tuesday 110).
Long rates in conjunction with the sell-off yesterday are back to square 1 or the level of the crisis outbreak
Stock markets creep higher and will most likely close the week unchanged on these events and intervention measures (Japan still minor loss of 4%)
2)The BoJ and the Japanese government also increase efforts in terms of domestic emergency measures:
The BoJ will pursue powerful monetary easing - meaning that quantitative easing is lifted to a higher level -and will continue to provide ample liquidity.
The government will issue JPY 10 trillion of earthquake relief bonds to finance the reconstruction, EUR 87 bio equivalent. These bonds will most likely be absorbed by the BoJ.
Fukushima: renewed white smoke appearing carrying not a good message ; power cable being put into place but no electricity generation yet.
3 Comments
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Theo
On 18 Mar, 2011
If only the Universe of Finance was run by Cosmologists instead of a bunch of guys who think that they are God and can ignore the Arrow of Time and think that they can live in thermal equilibrium
That's like the Keynesian economics which says that a "recovery" is going back to pre-crisis levels.
Maybe this is why we have been in a constant crisis since the 70s - we keep trying to go back to the 50s & 60s, and thus refusing to go forward.
Perhaps that could explain our decline while we are optically kidding ourselves that we are moving towards the future.
I know it sounds nerdy, but it's not.-
christof Govaerts
On 18 Mar, 2011
Absolutely right, and the GDP V-shape recovery is hiding more things than it is revealing
http://www.dailymail.com/Opinion/Commentary/201103170992
We are indeed kidding ourselves that this is really the best thing - earthquake and reflation/debt explosion - the Japanese economy has experienced in some time !-
Theo
On 19 Mar, 2011
@ Christof
Thanks for link!
Good to see there are people like you and Geert who are quick to explain the realities of what we are dealing with.
Funny no one has suggested yet we clone those who died in order to maintain their economic contribution in terms of production or consumption... Are we supposed to rebuild their houses and replace their cars nevertheless?
Latin alphabet is the only one with a V letter...
On the other hand the laws of physics are the same in any language or alphabet.
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