Travel Log : Autobahn - Autostrada - Freeway

Published: August 9, 2012 - 20:42
This article received :  31 Comments
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When leaving last Friday for Italy, I thought being smart and get as fast as possible on the German highway. Boy did I make a mistake ! Last couple of years we were accustomed to traffic jams and road blocks but this year was really terrible : one road block after the other, all the way from Nord Rhein West Phalia through Rheinland Pfalz and the state of Baden Wurtemberg. So what to make of all of this ? Is Germany also supporting the business cycle this year by means of exceptional public investment ? Crossing Switzerland no problems, with the exception of the pretty expensive low budget motel and accompanied evening meal and breakfast. Yes, the 1.20 EUR exchange rate striking hard.

So we finally arrive in Italy Saturday afternoon. Attenzione, uomi ai lavori - meaning men@work - with the difference that not a single road worker was to be found. Sabato, of course. I had a nice warm welcome by Izabella, the lady of the house, who also introduced me to a friend of hers, Marika, a teacher in English language. And with Marika I had a first interesting conversation on the current crisis, Europe, Berlusconi and Monti/Draghi.

But when solving the world's problems, the best spots usually are bars. In my case however, the following conversation took place on the parking lot of a Lidl supermarket just before closing time. A charming retired Italian guy called Guido came up to me asking about the colors of my car registration plate. Belgio ? Si, Fiamengho. Aha, Eddy Merckx ! And then of course the conversation kicked off. Do we also experience a crisis in Belgium similar to Italy and Spain with high interest rates. I tried to explain to him the difficult political situation (federal-regional-North & South) and the narrow escape of November 2011. Next question : and how about now ? I explained to him that somehow Mr Market is currently very benign towards Belgium with 10y interest rates at about 2.5%. Guido raised his shoulders and merely replied :"non capisco". And frankly, my response came automatically :"Anch'io, non capisco tutto Guido"

It is indeed strange, and certainly after having shopped and paying less than at home, that some are punished and others are not. And it's not restricted to Belgium/France versus Italy for example. The current business cycle numbers for the UK for instance are worse than for Spain (dito budget). Again, print and thou shall be rewarded !

So we have an element of randomness, probably a basic ingredient of life in general. So Guido, my advice would be as follows: It's a wide open road, now more than ever. And for those having the luxury and the money, it's not a certitude that they can afford the freeway.

Cheers

31 Comments

  1. Philippe 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Cristof. What are you doing on the blog? Can't cut the link ? Be careful, the Bavarian finance sinister wants to cut all the safety ropes towards which everyone seems to rush to nowdays.

    Is it randomness ? I would be inclined to say no and to see in this elements of preconceived mental constructs. Narratives if you want. Just think about how all anglo-saxons seem to think that Italy is just about pizza + mafia + bunga bunga + debt + blah blah. As if Milan was exactly like Napoli or Palermo. just think about how Flanders seems to think that all walloons are workless lazy leftists. We have to live with it : in our world, most people ( and worse the vast majority of decision makers ) dio not try to make their own mind. No, they buy instant images. Quick representations that need no analysis. You don't make the difference by thinking but by showing, pretending and communicating.

    Add to this the true nature of nowaday's markets : a combination of 70% + HFT and complex intricated constructs of leverages. In this respect the size and the structure of the Italian debt and equity markets probably make them a much more effective leverage in a bet against the Euro than the Belgian one for instance. And if you're short Italy / Spain , you need to be long something else for sure. But make no mistake, the next domino is to be short that something you just stopped being long , to become long something else again.
  2. Christof 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    @philippe
    I would say amen ! It is indeed a question of perception and in our case we are lucky for now, guido and the rest a litle bit more unfortunate. As for being short and long in my private portfolio, i have taken my choices start of january and i haven't had any regrets since then. Our great leaders are now laying a bottom and for some assets, the only way is up, no repetition of 1932. Sorry, i am now back to the sun and the swimming pool
    Cheers
  3. Christof 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    @philippe
    I would say amen ! It is indeed a question of perception and in our case we are lucky for now, guido and the rest a litle bit more unfortunate. As for being short and long in my private portfolio, i have taken my choices start of january and i haven't had any regrets since then. Our great leaders are now laying a bottom and for some assets, the only way is up, no repetition of 1932. Sorry, i am now back to the sun and the swimming pool
    Cheers
  4. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Een beetje Coenemedia dell'Arte kan nooit kwaad.Vergeet dus vooral niet om tijdig in te schrijven op de kapitaalverhoging van Dexia:) Hoe groot zal de kip met gouden eieren van Yves en Jean Luc en Steven deze maal zijn?Ik schat ongeveer 14 miljard euro.Hopelijk gebeurt de plaatsing in minder dan 4O minuten.
  5. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Indien Guido met mij had gesproken dan had hij de belgische situatie vrij snel begrepen.Ik had hem vrij snel diets gemaakt dat onze premier bij de Pinken is en vrijwel wel altijd iemand vindt die verplicht het gat vult dat hij laat vallen.:)
  6. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Wat is een cynicus?Iemand die predikt over zijn geloof in Europa terwijl hij short gaat op de euro en long op de Zimbabwaanse dollar.:)

    http://nl.exchange-rates.org/history/ZWD/EUR/G/180
  7. Will 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    If we only should have he courage.....

    Already 2 years ago somebody told me to invest in Zim (now it turns out to be a bad advise because too early 2 years ago, the bugger is still alive but 80% eaten on the inside).

    the simplistic view was that when you should buy Zim dollars for "say" €1000,- then you end up with say 450000 Z$.

    Now ! Mugabe kicks the can "next week" and the Z$ goes on the Rally Rampage increasing by multiple % ....per day. Hugh support comes in from USA, Europe and so on, immediately.

    Before you come back from your holiday in Italy you might have the equivalent of 450000 EURO'S.

    Wishful thinking and daydreaming? possibly, but more chances then to win the Lotto and more chances then that merkel will marry dirup-you.

    héhé
  8. Will 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    kicks the can = kicks the bucket (die...)
    1. Nacht Und Nebel 

      On 10 Aug, 2012

      Will,

      So you are still planning to come back to Belchium?poor sod....:)
      You do know that when it rains here it isn't cats and dogs but tickets and taxes.:)
      1. Will 

        On 11 Aug, 2012

        from next week, 3 weeks holiday in Belchium!
  9. Theo 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Yeah, in Belgium Di Rupo I is singing "It's my way or the highway" and problem is even the highways are all full of Di Rupo I trappings
    Should one turn off the GPS and just go off the beaten track?

    I hear lots of Bulgarians have been offered full time contracts in Belgium... a shop in Berchem is even doing a fantastic business making them Bulgarian breakfast from 5 am
    My inner macro goddess smirks : Di Rupo I must be really desperate for income other than the usual highway robbery which has been paying for pensions for the last decade or so

    My inner macro goddess slams the Econ101 shut and takes the first Exit off the EZ free way
    1. Christof 

      On 10 Aug, 2012

      @all
      Don't take the exit to quick. Germany is now on the brink of taking a referendum to circumvene the karlsruhe high court. It seems politicians now want to speed up the decision process. And after all, not that i am a fan of De Tijd but a couple of days ago they made a good point : in 1975, the bundesbank also engaged in QE so they are no holy virgins either. I think we are gonna play this game a bit longer than most of us would have expected.
      1. Theo 

        On 10 Aug, 2012

        Fair point, Mr G.
        I did put my money were my mouth is after all - I haven't changed my Banker

        German hits from 1975
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIWNcg7C06g
  10. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Christof;

    Numbers can be deceiving.Let's take a closer look at the belgian frisco bond succes.
    De Belgische staasbon heeft de laatste tijd fors aan populariteit ingeboet. Bij een uitgifte in juni bedroeg de opbrengst slechts 46 miljoen euro, en in maart 59 milljoen.Begin dit jaar hoopte de schatkist nog ruim 6 miljard euro op te halen via de staatsbons, maar die verwachting werd later neerwaarts bijgesteld naar een half miljard.
    If you know that Dexia is bleeding about 26 million a day you can hardly call this a succes.
    Cash is king for private investors, companies and banks.Nobody wants the belgian frisco bonds so Belchium has a real problem.
    Europe will say yes to the Monti plan.After all Monti is Draghi is Goldman Sachs.
    Europe will print whatever amount of money they need for bunga bunga bonds buying .The only dividend for the forced bunga bunga bonds buyers will be a higher then 3 percent inflation.
  11. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    And after all, not that i am a fan of De Tijd but a couple of days ago they made a good point : in 1975, the bundesbank also engaged in QE so they are no holy virgins either.
    Hello.?:)Doesn't the european stability pact date from 1997????

    rechter:reed je onder invloed 30 km te snel op de autostrade?
    beklaagde:ja maar 20 jaar geleden toen deze wet nog niet bestond mocht iedereen dronken achter het stuur 100km::h te snel rijden.Ik ben dus niet alleen onschuldig maar verdien ook nog een medaille daar ik 70km:h trager reed dan iedereen voor het invoeren van deze wet.:)

    1. Christof 

      On 11 Aug, 2012

      @NuN
      It dates indeed from the nineties and not 1975. But next to budgetary policy does it state something about monetary policy ? I doubt it because it's a political agreement and ECB rules are set in A different framework. My point was that even Germans can act differently if it's in their own interest to do so.
      1. Nacht Und Nebel 

        On 11 Aug, 2012

        Christof,

        You do have a point.Sometimes altruism is the best form of egoism But the germans also have a point.

        Economic and Monetary Union is not an end in itself. It is an instrument to further the objectives of the European Union and improve the lives of the politicians and the eurocrats in the Member States.

        Monetary policy for the euro area is managed through the European Central Bank and the national central banks of the euro-area Member States, which together make up the Eurosystem. Decisions on monetary policy in the euro area can only be taken by the Governing Council of the ECB
        http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/emu/how/index_en.htm

        The monetary policy of the ECB and thus the EU that is chapter 3:)

        http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/monetarypolicy2011en.pdf

        from 1975 Lucifer:House for sale:)
        http://youtu.be/3qL5-mF6Cv4
        1. Nacht Und Nebel 

          On 11 Aug, 2012

          Christof,

          In all honesty I must say that I have to agree with you on this.We do not need rule benders but rule breakers to get us out of this mess.
          New re-evolutionary ideas but not revolutionary ideas .No need for animal farm revisited.:)
          After all.that is Darwinism, a re-evolutionary idea.It was and is not survival of the fittest but those who adapt are better than those who don’t.
          But I will always have a problem with the timely cruisaders of righteousness who claim that it is ok to burn everybody at the stake who doesn't agree with to turn the other cheek
          There is no blacks nor whites but only an endless area of shades of grey:)
          Ockham's logic is not binary but tri state.:)
  12. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 10 Aug, 2012

    Theo;

    Monket see monkey do


    .From 1975 The Average White Band - Pick Up The Pieces

    http://youtu.be/FnH_zwVmiuE

    And the reporters of the timely newspeak.I guess they can kiss my golden monkey nuggets :)
    1. Nacht Und Nebel 

      On 11 Aug, 2012

      Another song from1975 for the average timely newspeak reporter

      http://youtu.be/3PHdoqU7g74
    1. Theo 

      On 11 Aug, 2012

      LOL
      Careful Mr N. , Zanna from De Time of Our Lives might need a Xanax from Upjohn after this
      1. Nacht Und Nebel 

        On 11 Aug, 2012

        Theo,

        I do hope that Xanax is some kind of suppository pill?.Let us cure her rather qiuckly then..Do they have a Xanax size XXXXXL?
        No pain No gain :)

        Did you know that I need to know this song by heart for my future thai citizenship?
        I do sound rather silly;(
        http://youtu.be/KT6Ksfardzw
        Perhaps I will be better off giving the cambodians 50;000 USD
        1. Nacht Und Nebel 

          On 11 Aug, 2012

          http://youtu.be/eoSn2Y-b6wI
  13. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 11 Aug, 2012

    Theo,

    Always remember God is a woman and she drives a Harley Davidson.
    Does God wears Prada ?That I do not know :)

    http://youtu.be/RHBikURKkUM
  14. Theo 

    On 11 Aug, 2012

    @ NuN

    Somehow I cannot imagine She doesn't have a pair of Hot (W)heels in Her Heavenly shoes closet... especially for those Hellish Harley rides on the EZ tollways o.O They must be part of her Route du Soleil Cruise Collection :-)

    http://www.vroomgirls.com/prada/
  15. Christof 

    On 11 Aug, 2012

    @all
    Quite amazing. Yesterday evening, without thinking about 1975, i looked up some music on you tube amogst which the average white band (great choice btw NuN) and others to which you all refer to. So our next friday fun should have something of that "wrong seventies" music
    1. Nacht Und Nebel 

      On 11 Aug, 2012

      Christof,
      do it,do the hustle :)
      http://youtu.be/wj23_nDFSfE

      and make me smile:)

      http://youtu.be/02mqzVLxAWI
      1. Christof 

        On 11 Aug, 2012

        @nun
        Great tips : do the hustle, make me smile, all seventies. I will have to make a juke box because i had chic, kc&the sunshine band and the commodores in mind as well. We will work something out
    1. Theo 

      On 11 Aug, 2012

      My inner macro goddess is dancing barefoot in her derivatives kitchen

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcZn2-bGXqQ

      1. Nacht Und Nebel 

        On 11 Aug, 2012

        Theo,

        In the Land of a Thousand Dances my geneation is singing "In Excelsis Deo" while spending their well earned free money on Redondo Beach
        Yes,jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine:)Nice one :)
        It is 1975 all over again:)

        http://youtu.be/kPGUAwqgIJw

  16. Nacht Und Nebel 

    On 11 Aug, 2012

    Goddess or no Goddess .Never dance the pogo to this while wearing hot free wheeling Prada shoes:)

    http://youtu.be/2R5lcZFWEwg

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