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The myth of the Chinese soft landing
The Top 10 of rarest things in the world ?
10. Fine German restaurants
9. Humor and self-criticism
8. Safe biking lanes in Flanders
...
4. Proposals for public expenditures cuts in Belgium (as part of the 10Bn€ effort)
3. Reliable US statistics
2. Reliable Chinese statistics
1. Real Triple-A (AAA) countries
Last year, reliable Chinese statistics topped the list, but there are now at least 2 reliable Chinese statistics and -unfortunately- only 1 AAA country.
The two reliable Chinese statistics are : 1. Power output (electricity) 2. Money supply
Forget most of the other data in China: GDP numbers for instance are notoriously unreliable. The rumours of an economic slowdown in China have been circulating for a while. Idle buildings and capacity overhang are some of the warning signs of the Chinese economy.
But now a new and more alarming warning sign has turned on: money supply has collapsed in recent quarters. The growth of money supply is closely related with credits and hence infrastructural activity and fixed investments in general. The Chinese banks have put the brake on new loans, and as a result, activity will start to slow more markedly in coming months.
Analysts have so far stated that China will experience a soft landing. But the chart is a serious indication that there is no such thing as a soft Chinese landing.
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If you are in an inspirational mood, you may fill in the missing blanks (7-5) in "the rarest stuff on earth" list.
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20 Comments
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Kris Van der Plas
On 19 Oct, 2011
7. A Belgian train that runs on time.
6. A graph that doesn't show proof of an upcoming depression.
5. A Belgian prime minister that doesn't sell a bank to the French. -
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christof
On 19 Oct, 2011
7. Wild boar in mint sauce - the english grandma way - becomes a top delicatesse
6. Our Belgian team plays the 2014 world cup final against Brazil but 5 minutes before kick-off the team gives 5-0 because the country is split.
5. Switzerland wins the 2014 world cup because they showed up on time and the Brazilians did not -
incognito
On 19 Oct, 2011
5. black swan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15304972
Eurozone debt crisis: Greece's wild card
What happens if a people simply says "no"? What happens if, through many small and not-so-small actions, they sabotage the plan?
http://www.knack.be/nieuws/buitenland/portugese-leger-kiest-kant-van-volk/article-1195120052503.htm-
Christof
On 19 Oct, 2011
Power to THE people, indeed not such à crazy wildcard. Happens all the time and europe has a history
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Nikolaas Bellens
On 19 Oct, 2011
Finance Ministers that openly promote monetary inflationist views (there is only one)
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Nacht Und Nebel
On 20 Oct, 2011
Before we start our exploration, let’s review why people think Germany is competitive:
■it has very successful firms,
■it has a high current account surplus,
■its wage growth has been relatively low during the last 20 years,
■and random observations on Germans in general „show“ their compeitiveness.
The concept of comparative advantage is incompatible with the first argument, so let’s leave that. The fourth is story-telling to fit a predefined image of what Germans „are like“. No need to comment there. So let’s focus on the second and take Norway as a first and extreme example. I will come back to the third later.
Norway’s production of natural resources led to a current account surplus of almost 20% of GDP in 2008 (China’s is around 9%, Germany’s highest was 7.6 % in 2007). Does this mean, Norway is „competitive“? Well sure, its natural resources make output per capita among the top 5 of the world. That sounds „competitive“. But what if Norwegians were not as thrifty and thoughtful about the future as they are? Wouldn’t they rather spend the petro-money they earn, making their current account surplus, well, zero?
Having some very compeititive industries in a country, or some highly productive sector, is not sufficient for having a current account surplus. It is saving and investment that move last, if you will.
Godszijdank hebben wij ELIO,Het EU-noodfonds en de prachtige RvB van Dexia.Gebelgd worden is een werkwoord. -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 20 Oct, 2011
Athene wordt meer en meer het het Brugge aan de Noordzee.De gelijkenissen van Griekenland en Belgie zijn Treffend.
http://www.greekdefaultwatch.com/2011/08/ten-surprising-facts-about-greek.html -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 20 Oct, 2011
7.De politiek hier ten lande kent de essentie van het begrip humor.Waals minister van Begroting André Antoine verwacht van de federale regering een geste van 200 miljoen euro voor de gewesten en gemeenten, in het kader van de vereffening van de Gemeentelijke Holding. Volgens Antoine zou ook Dexia Bank België voor 250 miljoen euro moeten bijspringen
"De staat heeft de bank gered. Zoveel te beter. Maar daardoor blijft de holding nu achter als aandeelhouder van een restbank zonder uitzicht op dividenden. De staat moet haar verantwoordelijkheid opnemen. Ik stel een geste voor van 200 miljoen", aldus Antoine.
Aangekondigde nettowinst van 678 miljoen euro
Maar ook Dexia Bank België moet zijn steentje bijdragen, want "haar deel van de verantwoordelijkheid is onontkoombaar", vindt Antoine. Hij mikt daarvoor op een bedrag van 250 miljoen euro. Dat kan volgens de Waalse minister perfect voor een bank "die vorig jaar een nettowinst van 678 miljoen euro heeft aangekondigd".
Laten wij een optie nemen op het feit dat dit humoristisch bedoeld is?LOL -
chinawatch
On 20 Oct, 2011
Geert you forget to mention the political situation in China.
Next year and in 2013 there is political transition in China.
There will not be a hard landing while this happens. Does this mean no problems in China?
NO, you might be right longer term, but not in next 18-24 months as current leaders and new leaders will want to keep up their act. Nothing worse in China than to "lose face"...+ there is still money to be spent in China...
something to consider in your bearish views -
Theo
On 20 Oct, 2011
7. An Ordered Greek Default
6. An EFSF EUR Rescue Fund
5. A Real EU President-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 20 Oct, 2011
Theo
6 Belgian politicians receives free rhinoplasty
7.Every Newspeak reporter gets some free noose bleaching creme
BTW nice VID
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incognito
On 20 Oct, 2011
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-111020-Shanghai-Indicator.php
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yoganmahew
On 23 Oct, 2011
7. The cheapest bank bailout in the world (...so far) - courtesy of the late B. Lenihan Irish Minister of Finance.
6. A European bank resolution authority.
5. A European... -
Theo
On 26 Oct, 2011
#9... check
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/10/26/in-deft-move-chinese-property-tycoon-issues-own-currency/
