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A policy with a Twist

The FOMC minutes are out and it seems the committee of US rate setters is no longer unanimous on the issues. An extension of Operation Twist was the compromise outcome and there is a reason for that. And in addition, they softened the language even more by the previous commitment of rates on hold to at least Spring 2014 changing ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On July 12, 2012
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Dear Mr(s) Credit Rator, Part II

In my previous posting dd 16/01, I forgot to mention some important leverage factors as well. I therefore take the privilege to give you an update with new numbers, taken from a very recent McKinsey study on global debt and debt deleveragingThe following chart gives you the facts on the composition of total debt across main ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On January 23, 2012
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10 US myths

Here are 10 myths American politicians want the American (and global) public te believe. The article was written by John Defeo at TheStreet.com .

Written by Geert Wellens
On August 14, 2011
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The IMF and Lady Luck

A turbulent day and a sigh of relief seems to be the conclusion following the Greek vote. Europe and the IMF are happy with the outcome, for Greece mega austerity and a giant wall of debt refunding are on the menu. Concerning the IMF position on this rescue mission and what was said on debt policy world-wide, there is plenty of ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On June 30, 2011
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Impact US downgrade?

Op vrijdag verlaagde S&P de lange termijn kredietwaardigheid van de VS van AAA naar AA+. Het in het kader van het schuldenplafond goedgekeurde plan zou “onvoldoende zijn om het schuldenniveau te stabiliseren”. Het ratingbureau toont zich ook bezorgd over “verdere politieke risico’s”. Ratingbureau ‘s hebben wel ...

Written by Daan Struyven
On August 07, 2011
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The Nipponization of the US

If we use the same logic over and over again, we will arrive at the same end result. The solutions that were used by Japan, and proposed by ia. Greenspan and Krugman failed. And yet, the same school is still in power, and implementing the same policy in the US. In Europe, this school is very powerful. In 2008 they pushed for higher ...

Written by Geert Noels
On August 10, 2011
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US Banks were also insolvent in the 80-ies and 90-ies

Experts almost unanimously are pushing for a nationalisation of the banking sector, especially in the US. As this decision will determine to an important degree the next decade, it might be interesting to look at some counterarguments before deciding. The case for nationalisation can be summarised : ... the ...

Written by Geert Noels
On February 19, 2009
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Chickens coming home to roost

"Don't fight the FED, they always come up with a perfect put option". So far so good when it comes to equities and some other assets. One exception : Mr Bond doesn't seem to go along anymore.

Written by Christof Govaerts
On December 09, 2010
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Is this the real reason for QE2 ? - Update

The Fed will buy 600Bn USD debt ... "...the Committee intends to purchase a further 600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the ...

Written by Geert Noels
On November 03, 2010
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Het verloren decennium en het foute kompas

Deze column verschijnt in Trends

Written by Geert Noels
On August 17, 2010
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Nipponizatie van de VS

De Amerikaanse centrale bank is wat pessimistischer geworden. In verhulde "Fed-taal" staat een boodschap verborgen : Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the ...

Written by Geert Noels
On June 24, 2010
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The US goes European

Schitterende info-chart in De Standaard over systeem gezondheidszorg in de VS en Europa:

Written by Geert Noels
On March 22, 2010
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The global famine for jobs

US labour market: flexible, high productivity, lower indirect wage costs,... still collapsing activity rate.There is a global problem of labour - even in China.Economic growth does not produce enough jobs. And looking at the chart (and others of other countries), this is not a cyclical problem, but a structural long term problem.

Written by Geert Noels
On March 05, 2010
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Obama zet in op kernenergie

In de Verenigde Staten wordt de jongste tijd meer en meer over nucleaire energie gesproken. Dit onderwerp lag lange tijd gevoelig, na het ongeval in de kerncentrale van Three Mile Island in 1979. De huidige toestand van nucleaire energie in de VS volgens Reuters: The United States now ...

Written by Heleen Van Hoof
On February 18, 2010
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Paul Volcker's view on bank reform

Paul Volcker is perhaps the biggest central banker in US history, he most surely is the tallest. In this weekend's New York Times, he writes an op-ed on the necessary bank reform in the US. In short, Volcker sais that the current solution for the banking crisis has created huge moral hazard risk. Making banks "small ...

Written by Geert Noels
On January 31, 2010
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"Een Amerikaans bedrijf kan in China geen zaken doen"

...dat is de forse ondertitel van de column van Dominique Deckmyn in de Standaard . Het opiniestuk van deze IT-specialist gaat over de problemen van Google in China, waarover we al schreven op deze blog. De dreiging om zich terug te trekken uit China, komt na een reeks cyberaanvallen op de sites van Google. ...

Written by Geert Noels
On January 20, 2010
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Debate with the great Paul Krugman in Louvain-La-Neuve (with sound and vision!)

In terms of disagreements or comments , just some short thoughts:- I am a bit surprised that "trend growth" is defined as a growth level of approximately 2,5%, starting (!) from the level of end 2007, which was clearly debt-driven, unsustainable, after a huge real estate bubble. In my calculations, with a starting point some 10 ...

Written by Geert Noels
On November 19, 2009
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The recession is over, isn't it ?

The news is now all around: the recession is over. It seems that the media are so hungy for good news, that they forget to give a fair picture of the current state of the US, European and world economy.

Written by Geert Noels
On October 31, 2009
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Stiglitz over de banken

Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz zegt dat het financieel systeem vandaag een groter probleem vormt voor de gezondheid van de wereldeconomie dan voor de crisis. 'In de VS en verschillende andere landen zijn de systeembanken alleen maar groter geworden', stelt Stiglitz in een interview aan het persagentschap ...

Written by Geert Noels
On September 14, 2009
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De VS: militaire macht volgt economische macht

Het Witte Huis heeft vandaag zijn projecties bekendgemaakt over de begroting in de volgende jaren. Het is het rooskleurige scenario, want andere bronnen voorspellen veel zwaardere moeilijkheden in de volgende jaren. De bijgeleverde grafieken zijn erg interessant.Vooreerst de ontvangsten: 40% van de inkomsten ...

Written by Geert Noels
On August 26, 2009
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