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Recent stories for "Sovereign debt crisis"

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Coincidentally or not, but emerging markets from very different angles have crossed my path over the past 24 hours. I have been to a presentation of a major fund manager today, looked upon various CDS premia world-wide and came across the 2 main leading articles in the latest Bloomberg magazine which both focus on the outlook for ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On March 28, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets

Financial Repression - The goose and the MaxiMin principle

"The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing" Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-83), Finance Minister du Roi Soleil One of the "file rouges" and my personal pre-occupations during the current financial & sovereign ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On March 26, 2012
Tags :

Let the "real" games begin

The jury is out and it seems 800 banks in Europe opted to join in the free ride provided by the ECB, and this for an amount of 530 bio EUR. That lifts the total liquidity injection covered by LTRO1 and 2 at 1,019 bio EUR. And the balance sheet of the ECB will move from 2,733 bio towards 3,263 bio EUR with a capital cushion of ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On February 29, 2012
Tags :

A note on Banzai Bonds

Yesterday, leading rating agency Standard & Poor's maintained its credit rating for Japan at AA-. And although the state of public finance should give some reason for concern, S&P nevertheless is quite confident that Japan's future current account will be sufficient in the black in order to absorb the domestic funding needs. Well, ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On February 16, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Japan

Basel - Frankfurt : 0 - 5

Before turning to our little soccer game - which the Swiss supervisors apparently seem to be losing - we like to turn one more time to what is happening over in Frankfurt. After the successful LTRO of last December (489 bio EUR cash injection into banks), a new round of auctioning is heating up for 29/02. And it seems we are gonna ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On February 14, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Going French on sovereign debt solutions

When the going gets tough, the tough usually gets going. In the case of the sovereign debt crisis, we have the Greek discussions with private creditors coming to a halt and a March deadline coming up (will the IMF grant a new tranche of loans ?). In the US, we are getting prepared for a repetition of the debt ceiling debate of late ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On January 18, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

"Dear Mr(s) Credit Rator"

We in Europe - the old continent - have taken notice since late Friday that our credibility as a debtor has been put into question. We were warned earlier that something was waiting to happen. Now that it has materialized, I nevertheless have some questions running through my mind lately, based upon the following fundamentals ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On January 15, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Financial Products

Money for nothing, de olijfboom en andere olie

Iemand betalen om je geld gedurende lange tijd bij te houden, geen zinnig mens zou dat doen, en toch is het wat deze week opnieuw met meerdere miljarden gebeurde.Duitsland sleet voor bijna 4 miljard aan obligaties en doordat de uitgifte boven pari gebeurde zorgde een lage intrestvoet ervoor dat de crediteur op vervaldatum per saldo ...

Written by Johan Braem
On January 13, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Something is rotten in the state of Uncle Sam

With the recent change in FED "speak" strategy, more transparent communication and the new composition of voting members within the FOMC - kingdom of the doves and the last hawk having left the building - market speculation is rising that a new round of QE3 will be announced very soon. On the desirability of such a new program and ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On January 10, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets US & Canada

Voorkomen "nieuwe" fiscale regels volgende euro-crisis ? (2):It is private leverage, stupid!

Onze vorige post over de nieuwe fiscale regels voor de Eurozone (het "Fiscal Compact") stelde dat de "nieuwe regels" (o.a. de beperking van begrotingstekorten tot 3% van het BNP) nauwelijks verschillen van de "oude regels" van het Groei- en Stabiliteitspact (GSP). Het GSP werd niet nageleefd en voorzag geen prikkels voor ...

Written by Daan Struyven
On January 04, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

The risk free carry, part II : Money for nothing and the bonds for free ?

Earlier this week, we mentioned the rally on high yield European short term government bonds in anticipation of Wednesday's ECB LTRO auctioning (Long Term Refinancing Operation). Markets had expected something in the range of 300-400 bio EUR. The final result was 489 bio EUR spread over 523 bidders, on average almost 1 bio EUR per ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On December 21, 2011
Tags : Financial Institutions Europe

EMU : Roll the dice & stacks of High Society

Today the kick-off of probably thé most important meeting in the history of the single currency so far. Its survival is at stake and the players are bound to sit around the table to have a final shoot out. So pretty soon "Rien ne va plus" and all bets are made. Let's have a game ourselves and throw dices. In this simple game with ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On December 08, 2011
Tags :

(Don't) Cry Wolf

Cry wolf or false alarm. Or the so-called "cry wolf effect" : if you regularly repeat false alarm, how long will it take before your warning loses all credibility ? The last couple of months, we had all sorts of cry-wolf reports coming from doom specialists and various broker reports. It usually refers to the USD, gold mania or ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On December 02, 2011
Tags :

Taleb's Elephant and the Belgian Budget

Today I overheard a would-be minister of our next government expressing concern about our budget. And it seems that if it's up to him, a budget control will be executed on a quarterly basis to check whether we are still on track. Well that would just be great, wouldn't it ? next ?No. When hearing these words, I had 3 automatic ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 29, 2011
Tags : Financial

EEE : Crisis update & Echoes from Brussels

At the Econopolis Economic Encounters on 28/11, we had the pleasure to have Nouriel Roubini - Dr Doom & Gloom - and Ivan Van De Cloot, Chief Economist of Thinktank Itinera. Both were asked to pinpoint the state of play of the current financial crisis, their short & long term expectations and recommendations on the way forward. Dr ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 28, 2011
Tags : Financial Markets Seminars

Politics & the university calendar

When you decide to take a higher education - eg university, college etc- you usually will be subjected to a mass of knowledge to digest. But most college systems most of the time are fair, to the extent that you can spread exams or that you will be able to receive a second chance :1) January - April : a partial exam, a chance to ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 28, 2011
Tags : Financial Belgium

Pick 1 out of 3

So we finally came to an agreement and every one seems to be a winner. And that's how we are selling the story to the outside world, hoping they will buy it. Because that's all in the end that matters. I think we have 3 possible outcomes of which 2 out of 3 won't do the trick and 1 has the potential to trigger some "hup hup, barba ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 27, 2011
Tags : Financial Markets

Kabuki

In our previous posting, we mentioned that not a lot of safe havens still exit in the world of today. Which sovereign bond can I trust, what kind of monetary system will be there the day after tomorrow etc. Recently we have seen some strange developments occurring in financial markets, confirmed by international investors net in- ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 24, 2011
Tags : Financial Markets Japan

US Real Politik - Boomerang Part I

Politics and adapting to the new normal, it seems a bridge too far for many amongst us. And it's not restricted to Europe with its more than fair share of anglo-saxon media attention and frequent abuse. Pretty soon, it's back to Uncle Sam.During the silly season of 2011, we have witnessed a tough battle between bi-partizan ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 22, 2011
Tags : Financial Markets US & Canada

"Old Belgium is dying"

"The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter" Sir Winston Churchill, you love or hate him. Smoking cigars and gallons of whiskey. But Winston was there in times of ultimate despair. And Winston brought home the Nobel as well (1953, ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On November 18, 2011
Tags : Belgium

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