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"We simply can't" or... "We simply won't" ??
The Belgian 2013 budget debate resumes and it seems that once again we encounter a steeple chase with lots of water bassins and people from all pressure groups pre-emptively closing several options. The objective of this year's exercise is to find EUR 3.7 bio and to lower the budget deficit to -2.15% of GDP at Europe's request. My ...
Dutch "Modernization"
In the age of new-speak and political lexicon, the Dutch show us the way by banning that ugly austerity word and replacing it by a more social acceptable term like "modernization" and "building bridges". And above "de moerdijk", that implies some EUR 16 bio of "modern" savings, ie EUR 1,000/capita or roughly 2,5% of GDP. In the ...
A note on Munchau and QE - unintended consequences
Today Wolfgang Munchau in the FT focuses on QE European style and why an Anglo-saxon style QE would be to be preferred. Now I would like to focus on the first part because Munchau has a very good point here, something which we recently have stressed and focused upon in another framework, cfr ...
From Poupehan to Milan
A couple of days ago, our colleague Daan (presently studying at MIT) made a contribution on the desirability of installing a technocrat cabinet and whether it serves democracy. I think it deserves more attention, also in the light of what has been happening over the past couple of days in Italy with Giulio Tremonti presenting his ...
Politics & the university calendar
When you decide to take a higher education - eg university, college etc- you usually will be subjected to a mass of knowledge to digest. But most college systems most of the time are fair, to the extent that you can spread exams or that you will be able to receive a second chance :1) January - April : a partial exam, a chance to ...
So markets are burying JM Keynes....
...which is sad because we only have ourselves to blame ! And I honestly mean that in every sense of the word : sad and totally misplaced political self-pitty. Keynes is to Economics what Nietzsche has been to philosophy : basically a tragic personality and most of all wildly abused. And with an ironic side-kicker as the icing on ...
US Real Politik, Boomerang Part II
Up until now, Obama's scalps on the domestic front have been scarce, certainly when it comes to economics. Admitted, the legacy of his predecessor in terms of financial market leverage excess was phenomenal. And it has become all too blatant that traditional policy remedies are far from sufficient/efficient to solve this crisis in ...
US Real Politik - Boomerang Part I
Politics and adapting to the new normal, it seems a bridge too far for many amongst us. And it's not restricted to Europe with its more than fair share of anglo-saxon media attention and frequent abuse. Pretty soon, it's back to Uncle Sam.During the silly season of 2011, we have witnessed a tough battle between bi-partizan ...
2011-2030: in a nutshell
Simon Hunt, a consultant on the global economy and specialist on China, revealed his outspoken view on the world economy between now and 2030. His distinguishes two periods: the crisis years 2011-2018 and the new real era starting in 2018. We give you a brief summary and his conclusions for the next years.
10 US myths
Here are 10 myths American politicians want the American (and global) public te believe. The article was written by John Defeo at TheStreet.com .
The UK's moral decay
This is an excerpt of an article published in the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph , by chief political commentator Peter Osborne . He states that the riots in the UK of the past weeks were unacceptable and a clear sign of the decay of parts of the British youth. But he adds that there is a strong ...
Impact US downgrade?
Op vrijdag verlaagde S&P de lange termijn kredietwaardigheid van de VS van AAA naar AA+. Het in het kader van het schuldenplafond goedgekeurde plan zou “onvoldoende zijn om het schuldenniveau te stabiliseren”. Het ratingbureau toont zich ook bezorgd over “verdere politieke risico’s”. Ratingbureau ‘s hebben wel ...
Dood Osama, boost Obama ?
"We've got him". Dat was de kreet op 13 december 2003, toen Amerikaanse troepen Saddam Hoessein arresteerden in Irak. Op 2 mei 2011 zou dezelfde uitspraak kunnen klinken in de VS. Osama bin Laden werd neergekogeld bij zijn arrestatie, de Al Qaida leider werd 54 jaar oud. Dit is een opsteker voor de VS en in het bijzonder voor ...
Tunisia/Egypt: the wall is tumbling
Two thousand years ago, a Roman Senator suggested that all slaves wear white armbands to better identify them.-"No," said a wiser Senator. "If? they see how many of them there are, they may revolt."
Chickens coming home to roost
"Don't fight the FED, they always come up with a perfect put option". So far so good when it comes to equities and some other assets. One exception : Mr Bond doesn't seem to go along anymore.
Is this the real reason for QE2 ? - Update
The Fed will buy 600Bn USD debt ... "...the Committee intends to purchase a further 600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the ...
Het Di Rupo-rapport van Natixis
Dit is het rapport van Natixis, waarnaar Di Rupo gisteren verwees in een speech in Antwerpen. In het rapport staat een zeer ruwe (en foute) berekening van de regionale transfers. Ook de regionale BBP cijfers in het rapport maken de beginnersfout om geen rekening te houden met administratieve hoofdzetels van ...
EU Klimaatsteun
De EU-leiders waren in Kopenhagen. Er was trouwens een opstoot van CO2 de afgelopen dagen in Denemarken van op- en afvliegende klimaatongeruste politici en kenners. Eén van de eerste concrete maatregelen wordt nu duidelijk. De portemonnee van onze leiders stond wagenwijd open. 7,2 miljard euro steun voor "arme" ...
Het IMF-partijprogramma
Stel dat het IMF een Europese partij zou zijn, die opkomt in alle landen, dan zouden ze erg weinig stemmen behalen. Hun partijprogramma ziet er ongeveer als volgt uit (ik zet het even in het Engels, dat spaart me wat tijd): Public sector pay/hiring freeze 2-3 percentage points increase in the ...
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