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Let the "real" games begin

The jury is out and it seems 800 banks in Europe opted to join in the free ride provided by the ECB, and this for an amount of 530 bio EUR. That lifts the total liquidity injection covered by LTRO1 and 2 at 1,019 bio EUR. And the balance sheet of the ECB will move from 2,733 bio towards 3,263 bio EUR with a capital cushion of ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On February 29, 2012
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Damaged collateral

The LTRO operation of late December by the ECB has relieved some tensions on money markets and bank funding cost in the short term. Indeed, libor spreads have come in considerably while certain government bonds have had a serious rally versus the core led by Bund. It doesn't stop quite there and the ECB is preparing another set of ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On February 01, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Are we liquidity trapped ?

A liquidity trap is a situation when people are hoarding cash, this out of various reasons. A standard definition would say because people are expecting an adverse event, such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand or war. The classic debate between Keynesians and Austrians focus on the "why", not the fact that cash hoarding ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On January 08, 2012
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Belgium: not the sick man of Europe, but of the core eurozone - update

S&P has revised its outlook for Belgium from stable to negative. "We believe that Belgium's prolonged domestic political uncertainty poses risks to its government's credit standing, especially given the difficult market conditions many eurozone governments are facing" Some remarks: - S&P is lagging behind ...

Written by Geert Noels
On December 13, 2010
Tags : Financial Markets Belgium

Greece: Argentina revisited ?

Interesting Fed research on the parallel between Greece and Argentina. And while the US Fed of San Francisco is trying to avoid alarmist conclusions, the Greek crisis has not ended yet.

Written by Geert Noels
On November 02, 2010
Tags : Europe

Belgium seen as more risky than Brazil now

Tensions are back again. While Greek spreads are reaching pre-bailout highs, also other euro countries are experiencing rising spreads on their bonds and CDS-premiums.Banking problems are resurfacing (Ireland with Anglo Irish and Greece with NBG), and as a result, the focus is on the risk of souvereign problems. The Irish debt is ...

Written by Geert Noels
On September 09, 2010
Tags : Financial Markets Belgium

The "Power Elite" becomes worried

When people like George Soros speak, the world listens. It usually arouses attention on the issues of mega speculation : what is he buying or more importantly, what is he "shorting big time" this time ? Not this time. In fact, the recent interview of Soros in the run-up to the G-20 meeting next weekend is unveiling the thoughts of ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On June 24, 2010
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Griekse bailout: welk alternatief ? - Update Terzake

Deze avond moet ik op Ter Zake komen uitleggen of ik de bailout van Griekenland nog steeds een slecht idee vind...Wel vorige week spraken we nog over 35 miljard, nu al over 110 miljard euro. Ik vind het dus nog 3 keer meer een slecht idee...

Written by Geert Noels
On May 03, 2010
Tags : Europe

Savings Greece, or saving the banks ?

The decision to bailout Greece has been taken. 110 Bn euros will be spent to (re)finance Greek debt. It will be the biggest bailout operation in Europe, and apparently the biggest the IMF has ever undertaken.Given this size, you would expect more explanation on the strategy to help Greece in the long run. Without an economic ...

Written by Geert Noels
On May 03, 2010
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Greece // UK

Griekenland wordt geviseerd, maar andere landen zijn niet zo veel beter. Neem bijvoorbeeld het Verenigd Koninkrijk.

Written by Geert Noels
On April 28, 2010
Tags : Europe

Een te groot voorschot op de toekomst

Elk argument om te verkopen is een goed argument. Zo was het ook vandaag en gisteren hoewel de marktreaktie vrij laat kwam. Het argument dat souvereine schuld een acuut probleem is, staat al langer in de sterren geschreven. Het jammere is echter dat in onze huidige media wereld, “alle dieren gelijk zijn, het ene wat meer dan het ...

Written by Christof Govaerts
On April 28, 2010
Tags : Financial

Greece in a death spiral

Even 30, 45 or 70 Bn€ won't help Greece, because borrowing money to pay interest charges is not a sustainable strategy. I think it will be difficult for Greece to avoid a default. So, any money thrown after the Greeks will eventually result in additional losses. Governments (like the Dutch and Belgian) that are forcing ...

Written by Geert Noels
On April 24, 2010
Tags : Financial Europe

Nadenken over Zwitserland

Ik ga even 7uur uitwaaien op de fiets en nadenken over Griekenland, BHV, de euro, de conjunctuur, en wie LBL gaat winnen.België kan bij dit alles veel leren over Zwitserland: een economie die veel gelijkt op de Belgische (hoge loonkosten, belangrijke industrie, en chocolade natuurlijk). Een land met verschillende talen en culturen. ...

Written by Geert Noels
On April 24, 2010
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

Griekenland is Ierland niet

De Griekse regering grijpt diepgaand in: enkele weken geleden kondigde de regering van de socialistische premier George Papandreou voor 7 miljard euro maatregelen aan, nu komt daar nog eens bijna 5 miljard bovenop. Om de uit de hand gelopen begrotingssituatie onder controle te krijgen gaan de belastingen omhoog ...

Written by Geert Noels
On March 04, 2010
Tags : Financial Europe

Belgium: becoming Greece... or the ambition to become Switzerland ?

Today's message from the Belgian employers is clear: we want to focus on job creation, business, exports, entrepreneurship... Please help us. As Thomas Leysen (president of the VBO/FEB employers' association) puts it: Belgium is at risk of becoming the Greece at the North Se a. That is a statement that should raise ...

Written by Geert Noels
On January 25, 2010
Tags : Financial Belgium

Griekse tragedie ?

Griekenland is op dit moment randnieuws in het politiek katern van sommige kranten. Opstanden, gewelddadige betogingen en dat soort dingen. De nieuwe linkse regering heeft het moeilijk, te meer omdat ook de economie heel slecht draait.En dat is een aspect dat minder aandacht krijgt, tot nu toe...Griekenland zit in de situatie van ...

Written by Geert Noels
On December 07, 2009
Tags : Financial Markets Europe

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