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Recent stories for "Growth"

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China still rules the world

There have been doubts whether China will maintain its supporting power to the world's economy.This role is fueled by two forces, the internal growth of the local market and the export of goods and services to third countries. As for the first one, it seemed that China was at least partly supported by a supply driven economy. ...

Written by Johan Braem
On May 10, 2011
Tags : China

Bigger government leads to slower growth

From John Mauldin: We talked earlier about how increasing government debt crowds out the necessary savings for private investment, which is the real factor in increasing productivity. But there is another part of that equation, and that is the percentage of government spending in relationship to the overall economy. Let's look ...

Written by Geert Noels
On September 12, 2010
Tags : Financial

China: the biggest bubble in economic history - update2

When we first wrote about triple zero financing, credit bubbles in the US, refinancing frenzy etc., most people thought we were just pessimistic by nature. Unfortunately, these excesses were not halted, but continued until they provoked a credit crisis in 2008. The consequences were disastrous, and pushed the global financial ...

Written by Geert Noels
On January 15, 2010
Tags : China

China's monetary derailment - Update

The debate has been heated on this blog: is China a bubble or not?

Written by Geert Noels
On January 18, 2010
Tags : China

European Commission Forecasts

All in all, GDP growth in 2010 and 2011 is forecast to reach 9.6% and 9.5% respectively, still implying a relative underperformance compared to the average rate observed since 1978. However, demand by China should give a bottom to global prices of raw materials including petrol.The European Commission made an update of its ...

Written by Geert Noels
On November 03, 2009
Tags : Financial

China - the next bubble

Call me a skeptic, but I do not believe the Chinese growth figures. The Chinese economy grew 8,9% from a year ago in the period from July to September. This happened while exports decreased substantially in line with a crash of world trade and because of a weak US consumer.

Written by Geert Noels
On October 22, 2009
Tags : China

Bear market rally that won't last

Andy Xie, a former Morgan Stanley economist, writes a stunning column on a Chinese blog . In short, he believes the current rally in financial markets will be short-lived. Furthermore, he blames banks and central banks for a bullish bias. Well, I can agree with most of this: Market chatter over green shoots ...

Written by Geert Noels
On June 16, 2009
Tags : Financial

Big contraction = sign of big value added

Why is the US contracting less than for instance Germany?The OECD forecasts a 2,5% negative GDP growth in the US, but something like a -6% contraction in Germany. By these figures, it looks like Germany is having a subprime economy, and the US is showing more resilience. That seems odd. After all, the US was at the origin of the ...

Written by Geert Noels
On June 08, 2009
Tags : Financial Europe

Not too much stress in the stress test

The Fed release d the assumptions that served for the bank's stress tests. These tests are used to assess the robustness of the banks in view of the 2009-2010 adverse economic scenario. An impressive 150 highly-skilled (at least they are supposed to be) people participated. And guess what? The results show that we can ...

Written by Geert Noels
On April 24, 2009
Tags : Financial US & Canada

US debt and growth bubble

This is a chart I made to illustrate that US GDP growth has been inflated by credit growth. It shows that the US was on an unsustainable growth path, fuelled by credit. 2000-2003 could have been a balancing period, but the Fed aborted this healing process by lowering interest rates, and encouraging cheap money.I have included a ...

Written by Geert Noels
On April 16, 2009
Tags : Financial US & Canada

De economische motor is opgeblazen

De groei in de VS bedroeg in de periode 1997-2007 ongeveer 3% per jaar. Maar dat groeiritme was gedopeerd. Het kon alleen maar worden bereikt met kredietstimuli, iets wat onhoudbaar is gebleken. Dat wil zeggen dat we nu een stap terugzetten.Als je het effect van de kredietbubbel uit de groei wegneemt, dan kom je op een groei die ...

Written by Geert Noels
On March 31, 2009
Tags : Financial US & Canada

How to get out of the crisis?

A lot of effort is put in analysing the causes of the crisis. We now well understand that excess credit growth and unsustainable growth models in major economies led to the economic and financial problems we are now facing. Problem solving and solutions are however a different matter. The UK think tank 'the Young ...

Written by Geert Noels
On March 03, 2009
Tags : Financial

De grenzen van de groei

Stephen King, de econoom van HSBC die de bubbel van 2000 voorzag, is nu pessimistisch over de economie ... Het rapport leest als een boek van euh ... Stephen King, horror dus. Maar de groeivoorspellingen voor de VS (-0,9% in 2009 en +2,4% in 2010) zijn dat zeker niet. Happy end. Als Bernie Madoff ...

Written by Geert Noels
On January 06, 2009
Tags : Financial Wealth US & Canada

China wil groeimotor op gang houden

China was goed voor 27% van de globale economische groei in 2007. Dat zijn berekeningen van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds. Een groeivertraging van China heeft op dit moment meer wereldwijde effecten dan een Amerikaanse groeivertraging. Post-olympische depressie recessie groeivertraging groeiafname tot 8% De ...

Written by Geert Noels
On November 10, 2008
Tags : China Emerging East

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