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Destroying the recovery ex-ante ?
A funny thing happened this week with a remarkable change of tactics inside the FOMC, the rate decision organ of the Federal Reserve. Whilst almost every one was anticipating some form of new (h)opium to please the bulls, the minutes of the March meeting showed exactly the opposite. Some might argue that these minutes from the FED ...
Banks, central banks & commodities
Manipulation and conspiracy theories are of all times. Last year, rumors surged that 1 particular giant broker in the US was doing all within its powers to depress the price of silver by selling silver futures. And the conspiracy became complete when rumors surged this was done at the request of the FED because precious metals were ...
The Bernanke critics are wrong ?
The answer is "yes", that is if you read today's main article on Bloomberg. The main story line being : "The criticism about the FED being inflationary is not fact-based. Unemployment is slightly improving but far from inflationary levels. And though several republican presidential candidates are claiming Mr Bernanke is the most ...
FED and 5 year "risk free" heading to 0% boundery
May you live in interesting times", so goes the English translation of a Chinese curse/proverb. And indeed we live in interesting times because the FOMC yesterday decided to shift the outlook on a 0% short term rate from 2013 to at least 2014. And at the same time, the FED made some choices on explicit inflation ...
Going French on sovereign debt solutions
When the going gets tough, the tough usually gets going. In the case of the sovereign debt crisis, we have the Greek discussions with private creditors coming to a halt and a March deadline coming up (will the IMF grant a new tranche of loans ?). In the US, we are getting prepared for a repetition of the debt ceiling debate of late ...
Solely I owe the Flemish taxpayer 100%
After issuing a public tender, the Flemish government has apparently made a decision on their new preferred home banker. ING came out as the winner. And already a lot of fuzz going on that it's a shame a non-Belgian, or non Flemish banker for that matter, has been elected. Dexia has announced it will take the decision into ...
More disclosure on half a trillion USD
"Half a trillion USD and you don't know ?" This extract comes from a congress hearing in 2009 (cfr infra youtube link) when Ben Bernanke was questioned about the constitutional functioning of the FED and the emergency operations occurring in 2008. It was revealed back then that the FED during Q4 2008 made some 538 bio USD - and ...
Solidarity & Radio Silence
Solidarity is a buzz word these days : solidarity of taxpayers with national or international problems, interbank solidarity (or more the lack of it) and international solidarity amongst central bankers in terms of exchange rate coordination and more recently bail-out initiatives. Last week we had another strong example with the ...
"Strange days" meets "Nothing Rhymed"
James Bond and Auric Goldfinger were never close friends, even when playing a game of golf. And in economic reality, it rarely occurs that both assets - gold and bonds - go hand in hand. The main reason is that gold serves as a kind of inflation hedge which normally implies an environment of rising yields (and losses on bonds). ...
The Recession of 2011?
The renowned American financial expert and much appreciated Econopolis- and Econoshock-contact John Mauldin very accurately predicted the financial crisis of 2008 and the recession that resulted from it. In his latest newsletter "Thoughts from the Frontline" (www.johnmaulding.com and ...
US debt ceiling and debt monetization
Europe is in the midst of a financial crisis. But the US is also experiencing a debt crisis. The discussion about the so-called " debt ceiling" hides a more fundamental problem: the appetite of foreigners for US debt has been disappearing. Only China and the US Federal Reserve are willing to ...
Impact US downgrade?
Op vrijdag verlaagde S&P de lange termijn kredietwaardigheid van de VS van AAA naar AA+. Het in het kader van het schuldenplafond goedgekeurde plan zou “onvoldoende zijn om het schuldenniveau te stabiliseren”. Het ratingbureau toont zich ook bezorgd over “verdere politieke risico’s”. Ratingbureau ‘s hebben wel ...
FOMC : Strait-Jacket BB ?
The FOMC dropped a bombshell...by doing nothing... and pledging to remain in zero-rate land for a long time. And there are several implications, some indirectly desired by Ben Bernanke, other more counter market productive and obscure. But apart from causing a last minute relief rally on stocks (600 point intra-day swing on DOW), ...
Market Update - all eyes on 09/08 - Twist (but don't shout it out loud !)
So the ECB gave in once again in exchange for a tiny quid pro quo. It reactivated its bond purchasing program today and the effects are visible on Italian and Spanish government bonds. The price Italy had to pay was to accelerate structural reforms and cement a balanced budget into constitutional law. For now, the silver bullet the ...
Apocalypse now revisited
In a speech delivered last Thursday to the National Press Club, FED chairman Bernanke made a curious remark on inflation regarding emerging markets. The Bernanke logic goes as follows : increased global commodity inflation is a result of growing demand within emerging markets, and their failure to tackle the inflation problem by ...
London Calling
The latest string of monthly figures on foreign holdings of US Treasuries gives some surprising results : Of the big global players, only Japan and Brazil keep on accumulating US debt at a steady pace. Opec, Russia and the Carribean seem to be losing interest while China apparently heralds status quo, if we believe the official ...
The Third Mandate and Stabilit
Speaking on CNBC at a FDIC sponsored forum last week, FED chairman Bernanke was asked how quantittative easing could be called a success in view of rising interest rates and commodity price spikes. His answer revealed that the FED now officially admits having a third mandate : "Our policies have contributed to a stronger ...
Monty FED - the Holy Grail
"Camelot, Camelot, Camelot !!!", yell the Knights of the Round Table when finally arriving at King Arthur's residence. Their optimism is quickly put down to earth when Concorde, the brave carrier, mumbles "it's only a model." FED Governor Yellen to some extend shared the same kind of enthusiasm last week, and equally we tend to ...
Chickens coming home to roost
"Don't fight the FED, they always come up with a perfect put option". So far so good when it comes to equities and some other assets. One exception : Mr Bond doesn't seem to go along anymore.
Going beyond the final frontier...
In a rare appearance before national broadcast, Ben Bernanke yesterday on CBS gave comment on the state of the economy and his intentions further up the road. Apparently it took 1 bad number - November pay-rolls released last Friday - to ring the alarm bells inside the FED. Just 1 month after QE2 has been announced, it seems QE3 is ...
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