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On written and unwritten rules
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than any one else", dixit Albert Einstein. On these rules of the game, playing better and fair play, some confusion has arisen over the past couple of weeks. And the fact that it has become headline news should start ringing bells for our policy makers. A ...
A wall of liquidity with little place to go...
Just when you thought you were helping the market, the media are now starting to bash the ECB for doing too much. In various Dutch and Anglo-saxon media we find headlines such as "ECB bank support could harm debt market" and "Money market struggles with massive support from ECB". So the 1 trillion EUR liquidity shot has overdone ...
Basel - Frankfurt : 0 - 5
Before turning to our little soccer game - which the Swiss supervisors apparently seem to be losing - we like to turn one more time to what is happening over in Frankfurt. After the successful LTRO of last December (489 bio EUR cash injection into banks), a new round of auctioning is heating up for 29/02. And it seems we are gonna ...
Damaged collateral
The LTRO operation of late December by the ECB has relieved some tensions on money markets and bank funding cost in the short term. Indeed, libor spreads have come in considerably while certain government bonds have had a serious rally versus the core led by Bund. It doesn't stop quite there and the ECB is preparing another set of ...
Going French on sovereign debt solutions
When the going gets tough, the tough usually gets going. In the case of the sovereign debt crisis, we have the Greek discussions with private creditors coming to a halt and a March deadline coming up (will the IMF grant a new tranche of loans ?). In the US, we are getting prepared for a repetition of the debt ceiling debate of late ...
Are we liquidity trapped ?
A liquidity trap is a situation when people are hoarding cash, this out of various reasons. A standard definition would say because people are expecting an adverse event, such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand or war. The classic debate between Keynesians and Austrians focus on the "why", not the fact that cash hoarding ...
The risk free carry, part II : Money for nothing and the bonds for free ?
Earlier this week, we mentioned the rally on high yield European short term government bonds in anticipation of Wednesday's ECB LTRO auctioning (Long Term Refinancing Operation). Markets had expected something in the range of 300-400 bio EUR. The final result was 489 bio EUR spread over 523 bidders, on average almost 1 bio EUR per ...
Play the "safe" EMU govie carry trade
After November's hectic month on all sorts of government bonds, ranging from PIIGS over to Belgium over to credits globally, December has kicked off under a different Zodiac sign. In fact, the latest auctions on government bonds have staged various rallies on different countries.Now the question would be : Has the Belgian state ...
On the Bundesbank, Kids & Credit Cards : Half a trillion, this time EUR
"Involuntary lending is what happens when your teenager figures out how to charge stuff to your credit card. The kid promises to pay for the purchases but never gets around it, so your involuntary loan keeps getting bigger. At some point it dawns on you that you might never get your money back" ...
Paramo preparing us for an ECB silver bullet ??
Last Sunday (blog pick 1 out of 3), I took the liberty of freewheeling into the minds of our policy makers. We had already ruled out the EFSF or SPV/CDO option, both on grounds of credibility and political feasibility (Germany). But we also suggested that the ECB might be tempted to come into action but not as last resort buyer at ...
Pick 1 out of 3
So we finally came to an agreement and every one seems to be a winner. And that's how we are selling the story to the outside world, hoping they will buy it. Because that's all in the end that matters. I think we have 3 possible outcomes of which 2 out of 3 won't do the trick and 1 has the potential to trigger some "hup hup, barba ...
"Real Politik" : A German Pre-emptive strike ?
Courtesy of Zerohedge and if they are right with their scope, we still can't say that we hadn't seen this one coming : Apparently Germany is silently preparing a "tabula rasa" and "cut the crap". In Thursday's Handelsblatt edition, it would appear that the following simple question would be raised : those who can and willing to ...
Entering the post 26/10 era
Yesterday's marathon meeting delivered some of the goodies, in some cases even surprisingly better than expected, in other respect still vague. And we have postponed once again some important decisions, both on the practical implementation of announcements (SPVs to fund the leveraged vehicle, quid), not a convincing attitude coming ...
3 reasons why the EU wants rating agencies to shut op for a while
The Financial Times Deutschland mentioned the fact that the EU is thinking about a ban on rating agencies issuing ratings on eurozone countries. It could be said that the ratings agencies are like thermometers that provoke a rise of temperature. But this is probably not the right angle to look at this possible action. The reason ...
Solidarity & Radio Silence
Solidarity is a buzz word these days : solidarity of taxpayers with national or international problems, interbank solidarity (or more the lack of it) and international solidarity amongst central bankers in terms of exchange rate coordination and more recently bail-out initiatives. Last week we had another strong example with the ...
European banks: the endgame
On the international blogosphere, economists and market watchers are trying to give an answer as to why the US (along with the central banks of Great Britain, Japan, and Switzerland) is providing dollars to European banks that have lost their ability to access dollar capital markets? John Mauldin has the following answer and ...
Drachmetisering van de euro
Het vertrek van Jürgen Stark kan nauwelijks overschat worden. Het komt na het vertrek van Axel Weber eerder dit jaar. De ECB zal nu in handen komen van de Italiaan Mario Draghi, met als vice-voorzitter de Portugees Vitor Constancio. Alleen een verhuis van Frankfurt naar Milaan ontbreekt nog. De reden voor het vertrek is duidelijk. ...
August 2007, 4 years later on
On August 9 2007, the ECB pumped a record 95 bio eur of liquidity into the money market in an effort to unfreeze the desperate conditions of interbank lending. It was a first and serious sign that a crisis was looming. We are now 4 years later on, and the main question remains : could it happen again ?In view of all the focus ...
Pijnloze oplossing is fictie
(deze tekst verscheen in De Standaard afgelopen weekend) - Geert Noels, hoofdeconoom en stichter van de vermogensbeheerder Econopolis, zegt dat de tijd van schuldgedreven groei definitief voorbij is. Hij waarschuwt voor kwakzalvers die ons naar de afgrond brengen. Politici en bankiers zouden moeten kijken naar ...
The Greek bailout: wasted money
If you ask a frog to come up with a plan for draining a swamp, you are likely to end up with a proposal for more flooding.An inverse wealth tax That is the conclusion of Harald Hau , finance professor at Insead. the bailout is unlikely to end the problems with Greece and the eurozone. Why did the EU made such a bad ...
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