Should we really help Greece?

Published: February 15, 2010 - 09:44
This article received :  15 Comments

It is a cruel question, but a very valid one.

For a start, Greece hascooked the books, and has misled euroland co-members when entering the euro. The country has not taken appropriate measures to clean up its mess, and lets things run out of hand. So why shouldGerman taxpayers helpa country that has misled authorities about its true state?

Furthermore, helping Greece would createhuge moral hazard problems. Spain, Portugal and Italy would feel sure that one day they could refer to this precedent. And what shouldIrelandthink? One year ago, the country took drastic measures to counter its problems. The result is not only an indication but also a strong example for Greece. Taking measures really helps, and the stress on Irish debt has eased since. The only valid solution for Greece, is the Irish route, this means tackle its own problems without outside help. Why did the ECB not applaud more the brave Irish policy?

Open Europe, a European liberal think-tank, has madean interesting piece of researchpresenting and analysing several scenarios for the Greek problem. They write:

Open Europe concludes that, taking all short term alternatives into account,EU leaders should either let Greece default, in order to avoid the ‘moral hazard’ scenario which could impose even higher costs down the road, while also avoiding policies for which there is no popular support;or go to the IMF, which has the necessary experience in coming to the rescue of individual countries. This would also avoid the huge complications involved in cross-border transfers of money and establishing central EU economic governance.

Another thing is also often forgotten. Greece not only has a budgetary problem, but also a problem of competitiveness. Painful budgetary measures will only increase economic woes further. Therefore, leaving the euro would be for Greece, like cutting the dollar-peg for Argentina. A dramatic step, that could be accepted when problems grow further, and a fundamental solution becomes unavoidable.

15 Comments

  1. Bart 

    On 10 Feb, 2010

    It's not cruel at all. What is really counterproductive is to bail out all plain stupidity, all honest mistakes, all bad will and even all fraud. Those who fail by whatever cause should be given the opportunity to... just fail. And then, only then, you help. I don't want anybody to be left behind without help, but at least let them hit rock bottom first, or turn their ship on their own first. Simply because otherwise the chances are high those willing and more healthy helpers (whatever their motives) will be taken down too. And it's a lot more didactive.
    Unfortunately we're just collectively trudging along in a politically correct holier than thou fashion: self-delusion in its worst and most dangerous form.
  2. MarcVdB 

    On 10 Feb, 2010

    I am linking to a Brad DeLong blogpost from 1996, where he is raging against the goldstandard. As we can see in the Baltics (Latvia most notably), the Euro is acting like a gold standard at the moment. And it is not helping the european economies.

    http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html

    Should Greece opt for the Latvia route? Or should they receive a bailout + be kicked out of the euro?
  3. Nick Doms 

    On 10 Feb, 2010

    Too big to fail and moral hazards are semantics.
    The EU reaps what it allowed Greece to sow right in front of their eyes.
    If you want another crop next year, then give directives.
    Today, the message shoud be clear to the EU: reap and swallow it.
    Stop whining about your seeds that you approved to begin with.
    The IMF is not an option. Letting Greece go is not an option either.
    Just fix the problem and get over it already.
    Only native Americans know how to do a raindance around the campfire and make it rain.
    I have never met a European that can do the same.
    1. MarcVdB 

      On 10 Feb, 2010

      Next on the list is Portugal. A portuguese bailout can be swallowed also. Then to Spain. Erm. Whooops.

      If Greece wants to stay in the currency union they should hand over budget control to the currency union. Otherwise they should be kicked out with a nice little rucksack that avoids all problems for the first 5 years.
  4. frederic 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    The main reason why the EU is helping out Greece is trying to stabilize the system and the trust with the people.

    When people are getting there faith back into the system , then and only then you can get your economy back up, otherwise the people just gather money, put it on piles and piling up money isn't very usefull for economic health.

    Let's put it this way, sometimes it's better to help your neighbour for your own good.
    If your neighbour is broke because of some mistakes and he is lootering his house, well helping him back on his feet will prevent lootering his house and will prevent value loss of the neighbourhood.

    moral hazard is the biggist risk and should be prevented with very tight rules. a solution for that could be something like this
    - Germany (and some others) want to help Greece,
    - They figure out some rules (saving on civil servants, services, etc...) "strikesensitive" isues.
    - let the people choose true a referendum, or the forein countrys help and you get those rules, but it's good for the country
    - or you don't let the forein country's help you

    this way you give over some power to the forein country's, wich isn't nice for gouvernments, and some (Spain, Portugal, ...) will do everything to prevent this .
    Also, strikesensitive mathers are solved because it's - decided by the people"
  5. carl 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    Al in 2006 was het Griekse budgettekort boven de drie percent van het BNP gestegen.De Griekese regering deed wel aan creatieve boekhouding om daar een mouw< aan te passen.Griekenland worstelt immers met een zwarte economie die tussen 25 en dertig procent van hun BNP bedraagt of zo een 87 à 104 miljard euro (cijfers 2008)

    Hoe losten ze dat op?Bij hun BNP rekenden ze ook de zwarte inkomsten uit prostitutie,illegale sigaretten en alcoholsmokkel,witwaasen van zwart geld enz.Pas later werd dit door de auditors van de EU ontdekt.Hoe kun je je BNP anders berkenen?Leer het van de Grieken,maar als ze je geschenken geven...opletten geblazen.

    If berlin realize the folly of providing a lifeline to Grece the next stop likely the IMF and their preference for austerity. over pro growt reform.(comment in WSJ today)
  6. Jan P 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    Obviously action is necessary, since the question is not anymore weather local country dept problems are a problem for the union as a whole; It's clear they are.

    But I don't necessary think the action needs to be 'helping Greece by financial support'.
    It is not just because the other PIIGS-countries would then be tempted to ease things knowing they will be helped anyway, but even Greece itself will not clean up their act if they are again supported after all the mistakes they made in the past. You don't help a drug addict by giving him more drugs. He will never stop the habit.


    The action should be; As they were allowed in the currency union push them out again until they clean up.

    The cleaning up could be a devaluation, or drastic measures to save on governmental spending, or getting help from the IMF.

    Extra money for the drugs addict is not even social either, it only makes him temporary unconscious. The problems thereafter are always worse...
  7. Peter 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    In my opinion, the comparison between Ireland and Greece is very difficult because Ireland is one of the best pupils of the class and Greece one of the worst.
    When they don't make their homework the complete class might feel. Greece needs more tutoring.
    1. Peter 

      On 11 Feb, 2010

      fail*
  8. tutterfrut 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    If Europe allowed European savings(through their banks) to be put massively in toxic 'cooked' US ponzi paper for many years, having allowed especially the US(but also the rest of the western hemisphere) to live far beyond its means for many years, then it would be quite illogical for the European Monetary Union members, not to support Greece in some way under strict conditions.
    'Moral hazard' sadly already happened irreversibly when they saved the giant banks and other failed corporate giants, in the way it's been done.
    I would have liked it otherwise, but therefore it's sadly too late.
    We're still in damage control mode, trying to save a financial system/model in failure, provoked or not by a hidden agenda.
  9. FV 

    On 11 Feb, 2010

    @tutterfrut : bedoelt u met 'hidden agenda' de geruchten als zou Goldman Sachs alles in scène zou hebben gezet ? (vervalste adelbrieven bij de intrede van Griekenland in de eurozone; soort Trojaans Paard) of de Financial Times die mee in het complot zou zitten ? kortom, angelsaksische trucs om de aandacht af te leiden van de échte miserie (VS/UK) ? De Germaanse goodwill om Griekenland te outbailen is er alleszins geen uit mededogen, veeleer omdat nogal wat Duitse banken hun vingertjes verbrand hebben aan de PIGS ...
  10. Theo 

    On 12 Feb, 2010

    Not we nor anybody can help Greece.
    The more they dig, the more dirt comes out.
    Now the gdp last year was even lower, which makes the deficit even bigger.
    Now even the rest of the EU is on the road to double dip, so nobody is in the mood for a Greek holiday.
  11. FV 

    On 13 Feb, 2010

    tiens, bizar toch : bij de Europese banken staan voor bijna 200 miljard euro Griekse schulden uit (bron : BIS), dus die 'redding' is gewoon weer de zoveelste bail-out van de banken !? ;-) Bovendien : op nummer 2 in het lijstje zou Zwitserland staan (47 miljard euro) en dat behoort niét tot de euro-zone : de Zwitsers 'profiteren' dus gewoon mee van het euro-belastinggeld !?
  12. Emeline/Viviane 

    On 15 Feb, 2010

    Deze morgen las ik op DFT.NL:"Knoeiende Grieken kregen hulp van zakenbanken VS".
    Goldman Sachs en JP Morgan hebben dus de Griekse regering geholpen om hun enorme schuldenberg te verdoezelen.
    Wisten A. Merkel, Sarkozy enz. dit al vorige week en heeft
    dit hen aangemaand om een zeer voorzichtig standpunt in te nemen?
    Waarschijnlijk wel!
    Wij worden wel voortdurend in het ootje genomen!
  13. FV 

    On 16 Feb, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/titlos-llc-special-purpose-vehicle-downgrade-catalyst-trigger-which-will-destroy-greece : als Moody's z'n rating op Griekenland verlaagt => liquiditeitscrisis & default Griekenland !? Minstens huiveringwekkend !

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