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US Real Politik, Boomerang Part II
Up until now, Obama's scalps on the domestic front have been scarce, certainly when it comes to economics. Admitted, the legacy of his predecessor in terms of financial market leverage excess was phenomenal. And it has become all too blatant that traditional policy remedies are far from sufficient/efficient to solve this crisis in ...
US Real Politik - Boomerang Part I
Politics and adapting to the new normal, it seems a bridge too far for many amongst us. And it's not restricted to Europe with its more than fair share of anglo-saxon media attention and frequent abuse. Pretty soon, it's back to Uncle Sam.During the silly season of 2011, we have witnessed a tough battle between bi-partizan ...
Kabuki
In our previous posting, we mentioned that not a lot of safe havens still exit in the world of today. Which sovereign bond can I trust, what kind of monetary system will be there the day after tomorrow etc. Recently we have seen some strange developments occurring in financial markets, confirmed by international investors net in- ...
Politics & the university calendar
When you decide to take a higher education - eg university, college etc- you usually will be subjected to a mass of knowledge to digest. But most college systems most of the time are fair, to the extent that you can spread exams or that you will be able to receive a second chance :1) January - April : a partial exam, a chance to ...
Een zakenkabinet: zonder of met?
Mario Monti en Lucas Papademos zijn de kersverse premiers van Italië en Griekenland. Met doctoraatsdiploma’s economie van MIT en Yale op zak en topcarrières in de Europese Commissie en Europese Centrale Bank zijn het rasechte technocraten. Vormt de aanstelling van deze niet-verkozen leiders het einde van de democratie of het begin ...
Paramo preparing us for an ECB silver bullet ??
Last Sunday (blog pick 1 out of 3), I took the liberty of freewheeling into the minds of our policy makers. We had already ruled out the EFSF or SPV/CDO option, both on grounds of credibility and political feasibility (Germany). But we also suggested that the ECB might be tempted to come into action but not as last resort buyer at ...
Solely I owe the Flemish taxpayer 100%
After issuing a public tender, the Flemish government has apparently made a decision on their new preferred home banker. ING came out as the winner. And already a lot of fuzz going on that it's a shame a non-Belgian, or non Flemish banker for that matter, has been elected. Dexia has announced it will take the decision into ...
On the Bundesbank, Kids & Credit Cards : Half a trillion, this time EUR
"Involuntary lending is what happens when your teenager figures out how to charge stuff to your credit card. The kid promises to pay for the purchases but never gets around it, so your involuntary loan keeps getting bigger. At some point it dawns on you that you might never get your money back" ...
Play the "safe" EMU govie carry trade
After November's hectic month on all sorts of government bonds, ranging from PIIGS over to Belgium over to credits globally, December has kicked off under a different Zodiac sign. In fact, the latest auctions on government bonds have staged various rallies on different countries.Now the question would be : Has the Belgian state ...
The risk free carry, part II : Money for nothing and the bonds for free ?
Earlier this week, we mentioned the rally on high yield European short term government bonds in anticipation of Wednesday's ECB LTRO auctioning (Long Term Refinancing Operation). Markets had expected something in the range of 300-400 bio EUR. The final result was 489 bio EUR spread over 523 bidders, on average almost 1 bio EUR per ...
The beaten generation
The labor market, the most important one in economic terms as far as I am concerned. We used to have the idea that the European labor market is much more distorted than the American one, the latter supposedly more "free". Despite today's so-called good news on the US - admittedly, it's not so bad - the numbers don't tell the whole ...
Voorkomen "nieuwe" fiscale regels de volgende euro-crisis?(1): L'histoire se répète?
Midden december kwamen de regeringsleiders van de Eurozone overeen begrotingstekorten te beperken tot 3% van het BNP. Voorkomen deze "nieuwe" fiscale regels, het door de ECB-voorzitter Draghi genoemde “Fiscal Compact”, de volgende euro-crisis? Fiscale regels bevorderen lagere overheidsschuld en zijn extra nuttig in een ...
Are we liquidity trapped ?
A liquidity trap is a situation when people are hoarding cash, this out of various reasons. A standard definition would say because people are expecting an adverse event, such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand or war. The classic debate between Keynesians and Austrians focus on the "why", not the fact that cash hoarding ...
Voorkomen "nieuwe" fiscale regels volgende euro-crisis ? (2):It is private leverage, stupid!
Onze vorige post over de nieuwe fiscale regels voor de Eurozone (het "Fiscal Compact") stelde dat de "nieuwe regels" (o.a. de beperking van begrotingstekorten tot 3% van het BNP) nauwelijks verschillen van de "oude regels" van het Groei- en Stabiliteitspact (GSP). Het GSP werd niet nageleefd en voorzag geen prikkels voor ...
Something is rotten in the state of Uncle Sam
With the recent change in FED "speak" strategy, more transparent communication and the new composition of voting members within the FOMC - kingdom of the doves and the last hawk having left the building - market speculation is rising that a new round of QE3 will be announced very soon. On the desirability of such a new program and ...
House of Pain - Fed to the rescue, again
New figures on US home foreclosures were recently released and for some, it might even induce some feeling of optimism. So the worst is behind us ? Not yet, and certainly not as far as the FED is concerned. But let's first take a look at some basic stats.
Money for nothing, de olijfboom en andere olie
Iemand betalen om je geld gedurende lange tijd bij te houden, geen zinnig mens zou dat doen, en toch is het wat deze week opnieuw met meerdere miljarden gebeurde.Duitsland sleet voor bijna 4 miljard aan obligaties en doordat de uitgifte boven pari gebeurde zorgde een lage intrestvoet ervoor dat de crediteur op vervaldatum per saldo ...
Going French on sovereign debt solutions
When the going gets tough, the tough usually gets going. In the case of the sovereign debt crisis, we have the Greek discussions with private creditors coming to a halt and a March deadline coming up (will the IMF grant a new tranche of loans ?). In the US, we are getting prepared for a repetition of the debt ceiling debate of late ...
Dear Mr(s) Credit Rator, Part II
In my previous posting dd 16/01, I forgot to mention some important leverage factors as well. I therefore take the privilege to give you an update with new numbers, taken from a very recent McKinsey study on global debt and debt deleveragingThe following chart gives you the facts on the composition of total debt across main ...
On the IMF, sprints, marathons and hybrids
A funny string of recent events have captured my attention. And it involves the IMF and politics. May be far fetched but a warning as well towards various addressees, either politically, economically or both. And the IMF is balancing here on a thin line judging the noises we are recently hearing.First of all there was Christine ...
















