Today, we have reserved a guest post for Jan De Blonde who is very actively engaged in sustainable farmland investment abroad. Jan is ...
My friend the equity racehorse sent me me the following interesting link which appeared on Dutch television and which basically ...
Vorige zondag (6 mei 2012) verscheen het volgend interview in De Zondag:
Elk jaar omtrent deze tijd publiceert BP zijn Statistical Review of World Energy. Bijna 50 pagina’s grotendeels gevuld met tabellen ...
Door een abrupt beëindigde skivakantie (nauwelijks 50 meter op de latten gestaan) bracht ik de rest van de week haast immobiel en al ...
Well, it's not exactly Moody's but more precisely Fitch, sending out messages which are "surprising" to say the least. Remember ...
Davos, setting of the Thomas Mann novel "Der Zauberberg" and sheltering famous people throughout history such as ...
Following our adventures in today's every changing moods in the world of finance, it's not a bad thing to assess volatility as a ...
You may remember I wrote a piece on Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) , Heineken and Fraser & Neave (F&N) when I was in Singapore earlier ...
My dear friend Sideshow Bob sent me a short note which I think deserves some attention. It opens up the discussion on one of the most ...
Geen kat die deze stelling zal betwisten, maar de impact ervan op de Chinese economie wordt vermoedelijk zwaar onderschat. We hebben ...
De kogel is door de kerk, iedereen van ons kan straks aandeelhouder van Facebook worden. Intekenen op een IPO is echter niet altijd ...
Apple kwam de afgelopen week met de langverwachte medeling over hun spaarpot van 100 miljard $. Een mogelijke overname is nog niet in ...
On March 14th, the Media Innovation Center was launched (under the wings of the IBBT) and baptized 'Mix'. Its goal is to support and ...
Yesterday Fitch released a report with some arithmetics and outlook on the ageing population and how the developed west so far has ...
According to the World Economic Forum, Canadian banks have been ranked as the soundest and most safe banks world-wide, this for 5 ...
Gemini, the immortal twins Castor and Pollux, in this case Dublin and Cork. We picked up an interesting story from out of Bloomberg ...
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Yesterday Fitch released a report with some arithmetics and outlook on the ageing population and how the developed west so far has anticipated on these demographic evolutions. As usual, most politicians and media take this with a benign neglect attitude : What's the problem, 2050 is still ages away ? Or in true Belgian style, it ...
Let's put in a USD 550 bio extra of asset purchases, or may be on second thought, let's double that amount. After 9 consecutive rounds of QE worth JPY 100 trillion - roughly EUR 1,000 bio and some small change - the freshly elected Japanese government headed by Shinzo Abe is looking for something more, let's say, "challenging". ...
Well not exactly hooray as far as the IMF is concerned : Apparently the IMF is not happy with Latvia having refunded their entire 2008 bail-out loan already. The IMF at one point even gave the advice of "piano, piano" or "we don't need so much money from you right now". The Latvians nevertheless pushed forward and now have of ...
"Life without music would be a mistake" - Friedrich Nietzsche. So before turning over to the 2012 review and 2013 outlook, let's just have a quick playful stop first by way of introduction : most likely the best ouverture of all ouvertures ever made, 18th century purest form of Rock & Roll avant la lettre :
When the Roman Catholic Church meets Ferrari meets the "Left", what do you get ? Because that's in a nutshell what is currently happening in Italy, "progressive" forces seeking change and joining forces. At first sight, they truly make an odd couple trio. Mind you, the majority of Maranello based Ferrari employees ...
A couple of days ago, blogger Bruce Krasting (fx) had a nice story on the Japanese Yen. "The full name for what is familiarly known as JA is Japan Short Anonymous (JSA). The group is patterned off of AA or Alcoholics Anonymous (many JA members are also in AA). The only qualifications for joining JA are the loss of a great ...
...and it's all about plan B, AKA "The Great Escape". There has been some speculation going on lately on how our monetary policy makers intend to normalize the unusual situation where we are in right now. Some - and probably helicopter Ben included - argue that it can become even more unusual in view of the fact that things are not ...
"Never underestimate the power of denial" - Ricky Fitts, American Beauty . It has been a while we reported on the European sovereign debt crisis so we thought it being appropriate to give a quick update. Greece finally has secured a new deal with the Troika but no new haircuts are involved. So no new debt relief. We ...
"Belgian budgets are rarely an example of elegance. But the numbers do fit !!" - A Belgian budget minister wearing a beard serving under Verhofstadt's Purple I cabinet At last we managed to produce some kind of federal budget. But whether we should cheer our government coming out of conclave, is a different matter. ...
At 5 AM this morning, it became clear that Barack Obama got his democratic legitimacy to carry on for a second term in the White House. It was a close call although most likely the final result in terms of votes might even indicate a landslide victory, depending on swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Virginia (if he holds onto ...
The Belgian 2013 budget debate resumes and it seems that once again we encounter a steeple chase with lots of water bassins and people from all pressure groups pre-emptively closing several options. The objective of this year's exercise is to find EUR 3.7 bio and to lower the budget deficit to -2.15% of GDP at Europe's request. My ...
In the age of new-speak and political lexicon, the Dutch show us the way by banning that ugly austerity word and replacing it by a more social acceptable term like "modernization" and "building bridges". And above "de moerdijk", that implies some EUR 16 bio of "modern" savings, ie EUR 1,000/capita or roughly 2,5% of GDP. In the ...
According to the World Economic Forum, Canadian banks have been ranked as the soundest and most safe banks world-wide, this for 5 years in a row. Toronto Dominion Bank, the country's second largest lender, is the only publicly traded lender in the world which still carries a AAA label from Moody's (for what that's worth of ...
Over the last couple of months, we have been focusing on "frothy" housing market bubbles in various pockets around the world, down under and in the West. And we have been focusing as well on the age of financial repression meaning zero interest rates, and what to do with our money, me, you, our pension fund. Today we will have a ...
Independent of the second presidential TV debate and its outcome, we can safely say that most of US elections are won or lost on the economic track record of the incumbent president. Remember "It's the economy, stupid". And the last couple of days, a strong attack has been launched on Obama by a set of Romney advisers , ie Glenn ...
You may remember I wrote a piece on Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) , Heineken and Fraser & Neave (F&N) when I was in Singapore earlier this year (March 6th to be exact). I had just visited the high-tech APB plant in Singapore and left very impressed with their activities and unique positioning ...
My dear friend Sideshow Bob sent me a short note which I think deserves some attention. It opens up the discussion on one of the most ancient forms of trading, dating from the days money did not exist. It seems we have a kind of barter revival on our hands. But let's have Sideshow Bob kicking off the discussion : The Chinese ...
The age of financial repression is going global these days. And it hence shouldn't come as a surprise that large pension funds are not really happy with what monetary policy is fabricating in terms of QE and interest rates. As a consequence, some re-allocations are taking place. Yesterday, the news came in that Japan's Teacher's ...
Sunday's big easy and two stories for the weekly wrap up. First of all Sweden, being the first big European economy to engage on economic stimulus, afraid that the global slow-down will have a strong impact on the economy due to its international exposure (exports 36% of GDP). So as a head start, the government decided to boost ...
Today Wolfgang Munchau in the FT focuses on QE European style and why an Anglo-saxon style QE would be to be preferred. Now I would like to focus on the first part because Munchau has a very good point here, something which we recently have stressed and focused upon in another framework, cfr ...
Before taking on the most important latest novelty - the main dish - a short appetizer on 2 items which also to a great extend stress the dangers of systemic risk still present today : 1) Yesterday the central bank of New Zealand urged its most important financial players to speed up their capital adequacy requirements : ...
Apparently we have some translation problems at the press communication desk of the ECB, more specifically the department English/Spanish. When the ECB last week launched its so-called bazooka, the message was nevertheless quite clear in plain English : With respect to governments and unlimited buying of government bonds, ...
Before giving a brief comment on what has been decided upon today, a quick quiz show. Who is quoted for the following statement earlier this week : "Markets are not allowed to run wild and must serve the people rather than the other way around. When we look at international markets over the last five years, then we see that ...
That were Mario Draghi's concluding remarks speaking before European Parliament in Brussels earlier this week. Again by times a clever effort following his Zeit open letter last week where some more psychological pressure was put onto the German people. Let's see what his main message was in order to know what we can expect next ...
...let's carry on then with the same treatment. This is usually a classic when you have tried everything to cure a patient with standard methods and everything fails. Or even more extreme in the House MD variation on this theme :"If it works, we were right, if he dies it was something else". But all in all, this was the ...
Over the past couple weeks - in facts months - we have been blogging on the future of the euro-zone and on the economic and political rationale behind recent developments. And the response in the sequential blog debates was rich and interesting to say the least, looked upon from all various angles and for which I would like to ...
We have seen some remarkable shifts lately on the German political front. Yesterday, Frau Merkel wistled back its CSU coalition partner after an interview in Der Spiegel which was rather unfriendly towards Mario Draghi and Greece. In addition, in her ARD appearance, Frau Merkel was remarkably in favor of the ESM rescue ...
A lot of scenarios have circulated ever since the Greek debt crisis escalated and we got contagion into the Mediterranean periphery. And all these elements were related to bailouts, fiscal consequences of bailouts on core European countries (eg possible eurobonds etc), too big to bail (Spain/Italy) and rescue funds, whether or not ...
It seems that the announcement effect of EMU bond buying did not miss its purpose when looking at how the risk-on status of the market performed over the past 4 or 5 weeks. And it is of course not restricted to equity markets world-wide, the return numbers on various European sovereigns are very impressive indeed to say the ...
Well we had quite a colorful US morning session yesterday. In the first half hour after the opening bell, an algo trading program went bananas affecting some 148 stocks amongst which some very big names. For more info on this we refer to
Late last week, some comments have boosted markets in anticipation of putting a floor under certain asset classes (beleaguered peripheral bonds and equity markets). Now some have already made the remark "we believe it when we see it", meaning that Nowotny's comments on the ESM banking license - and certainly Draghi's one on bond ...
In our recent blog conversations, we were already alluding to this inevitable happening and I am afraid we have arrived at this point (already intra-day yesterday). The Spanish yield curve has inverted, meaning short term yields now being above the levels of of the longer part of the curve (7y+). Under normal conditions, this could ...
Just when you thought you were safe, a last minute move from our dear friends in the US are spoiling the party. Moody's lowered the outlook to"negative" for the AAA ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg (!). Yes,you read this well, even our friends over in Luxembourg - with only 3 government bond ...
The headlines over the coming days will be in the style of "Belgian debt perceived as core reliable AAA". And most likely a lot of politicians will grasp the opportunity to say that our present government is doing a hell of a job, just have a look at those yields (all time low 10y < 2.5%). Now we can always be cheerful about ...
The FOMC minutes are out and it seems the committee of US rate setters is no longer unanimous on the issues. An extension of Operation Twist was the compromise outcome and there is a reason for that. And in addition, they softened the language even more by the previous commitment of rates on hold to at least Spring 2014 changing ...
Today, the following manifesto appeared in the blog sphere : "In support of a European banking union, done properly - a manifesto by economists in Germany, Austria and Switzerland". For the link, I would like to refer to : http://www.voxeu.org/article/manifesto-banking-union-economists-germany-austria-and-switzerland The ...
Catharsis, the emotional purification in Greek drama or the logical conclusion at the end of a play. It seems to me we are nearing such a point in the euro-zone where conflicting parties - now in full collision course in a super game of chicken - will be blessed with catharsis one way or the other. What is at stake ?In previous ...
There’s good news and bad news on my latest trip to Taiwan. The bad news is that I cannot talk about what was probably the most interesting factory visit and management meeting as they had me sign a very strict three-page long Non Disclosure Agreement forbidding me to even mention that I had talked to them, let alone that I ...
With the new French winds blowing at the Elysée, the debate on a growth pact gathers momentum: briefly “piano piano” on austerity and public investment providing the growth kicker EMU urgently needs. Also the IMF issued some warnings earlier on that moving too quickly on austerity might in the end even be counterproductive. The ...
A poetic quote coming from Irish political philosopher Edmund Burke referring to Spain. Unfortunately, the quote hasn't lost of its value because the whale has stranded in an economic sense. And it still requires some considerable assistance to find open water again. Although, despite the huge challenges confronting Europe's no4 ...
Have we witnessed a kind of decisive paradigm shift in Europe over the weekend ? It might still be too soon to conclude this but in political terms, some important events indeed took place. In order of importance : 1) Greek chaotic election result and not workable in the short term. Already after a couple of hours, leading party ND ...
I have a confession to make. I like to read books. My goal is to try to read one book a month. There are years in which I easily reach that target, but in other years I fail miserably. Most -let's say at least 75%- of those are work related in some way, and the rest consists of travel literature, John Grisham (I read ...
"The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing" Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-83), Finance Minister du Roi Soleil One of the "file rouges" and my personal pre-occupations during the current financial & sovereign ...
Manipulation and conspiracy theories are of all times. Last year, rumors surged that 1 particular giant broker in the US was doing all within its powers to depress the price of silver by selling silver futures. And the conspiracy became complete when rumors surged this was done at the request of the FED because precious metals were ...
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than any one else", dixit Albert Einstein. On these rules of the game, playing better and fair play, some confusion has arisen over the past couple of weeks. And the fact that it has become headline news should start ringing bells for our policy makers. A ...
The most recent FOMC statement was again an exercise in walking on eggs. Bernanke told the world things were brightening up and at the same time being extremely frustrated about the slow recovery of the labor market. On the latter, he is right : of the more than 8 million jobs lost since this crisis struck, 2 mio have been picked ...
Just when you thought you were helping the market, the media are now starting to bash the ECB for doing too much. In various Dutch and Anglo-saxon media we find headlines such as "ECB bank support could harm debt market" and "Money market struggles with massive support from ECB". So the 1 trillion EUR liquidity shot has overdone ...
De film van Michaël Roskam greep finaal naast de Oscar voor beste buitenlandse film. Maar ook zonder de trofee kunnen de recente successen van de Vlaamse film verstrekkende positieve gevolgen hebben. Indien de overheid aansluitend de juiste kaarten trekt. Dit artikel verscheen net voor de Oscar-uitreiking ook als opiniestuk ...
Yesterday, leading rating agency Standard & Poor's maintained its credit rating for Japan at AA-. And although the state of public finance should give some reason for concern, S&P nevertheless is quite confident that Japan's future current account will be sufficient in the black in order to absorb the domestic funding needs. Well, ...
In the ongoing saga on Greece and the Troika, again a meeting is deferred on whether or not extra money will be granted towards Athens. And the language becomes more harsh by the : "Wealthier countries are playing with fire by toying with the idea Greece should be expelled from the EMU-17 area". "There are plenty who don't want us ...
