Post-dollartijdperk

Een artikel in de Britse krant The Independent trekt vandaag veel aandacht. De overgang naar een systeem waar de dollar niet langer centraal staat, zou worden voorbereid. En het zou wel eens sneller kunnen gaan dan men vermoedt.

I n the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oi l will no longer be priced in dollars.

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The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. "The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies," a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. "The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won't be able to use the US dollar."

Dat er meer dan rook is, blijkt ook uit bewegingen van de jongste maanden in de financiële markten. Goud is in alle stilte boven de 1000USD/ounce geklommen. De US dollar glijdt af tegen de meeste munten. Het vertrouwen in de dollar als reservemunt brokkelt al jaren af (zie grafiek). En nu zou er dus een plan bestaan om tegen 2018 een post-dollar internationaal geldsysteem uit te bouwen. Bloomberg meldt op het nieuws:

C hinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years' time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

"These plans will chang e the face of international financial transactions," one Chinese banker said. "America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate."

The dollar weakened after the U.K.-based Independent reported oil-producing Gulf nations are seeking to move to a basket of currencies to settle transactions.

“A move by the Arab states to use a currency basket that consists of the yen, the euro and other instruments will definitely prove positive for those assets,” said Lee Wai Tuck , a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “This is likely to fuel buying of the Japanese and European currencies at the expense of the greenback.”

Een dollarcrisis lijkt in de maak.