- Your history
Friday Fun : Stainsby girl
So Greek PM Samaras continued his "tour de charme" across Europe and searched for Angela. He found her and gave her a big smile. Angela probably returned the smile but in the end, our Greek PM went back to Athens, empty pockets for now. And it seems that for Portugal the same will apply, though they have progressed further in achieving their multi-year strategy targets, non only compared to Greece but also compared to the majority of the EZ pack. As for Greece in general, our leaders very wisely postponed this issue towards October when a new Troika evaluation report will be released, don't have this on your plate right now, we have more important things to take care of. At which point in time, markets most likely no longer care and have cheered other decisions of our great leaders in between time.
I don't know about whether Angela likes the Stones but she sure knows how to "rock" things. Did she say something along the lines of "Brown Sugar" (no more), "Satisfaction" (no more), "It's all over now" ? Or "This will be the last time" ? Whatever, it's always dangerous to fall in love with the smile of a girl, even if she likes the Rolling Stones. Just ask Chris Rea and his guitar eye wink towards the Honky Tonk Women.
Cheers and have a nice weekend
Some girls used to kiss and run
Never knew what they had done
Some girls always wasted time
Keep you hanging on the line
Some loved horses and always stayed at home
But the Stainsby girls loved the Rolling Stones
Now some had games that you had to play
Making rules along the way
Strange attractions newly found
Pride and passion kicked around
Some girls stole your heart
Like most girls do
But a Stainsby girls could break it in two...
49 Comments
-
FV
On 24 Aug, 2012
Well, as to Jagger, I think a little lip-reading (;-)) is appropriate. I read some album-titles on Angela's lips : Goats Head Soup (fèta ?), Let It Bleed, Sticky Fingers and A Bigger Bang.
-
christof Govaerts
On 24 Aug, 2012
@FV
It's nice to know at least some one is like a wild horse, incapable of getting dragged away from my blog, trhank you for that :-)
Let it bleed seems appropriate indeed, as street fighting men and uncover of the night. Question : will Angela start us up or is she too damned cold ?-
FV
On 24 Aug, 2012
Hm, "Mixed emotions", whether to have "Sympathy for the Devil" or to run away from the "Beggars Banquet."
-
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 24 Aug, 2012
Hmmm,
Sister Medical Morphine Merkel as our only dope.Why do germans always fight World Wars that they can't win ?
This is so cheap.Yes Merkel we know that you have lost the game.You lost the game the day that you sold out for?I don't know.Big capital I guess like Deutsche Bank.
So,the encore a bad remake ,a fixed performance like a match of mexican catch.
This is so european the loser always has his photograph with the V-sign in the press.
Conclusion Any European organization is like a tree full of monkeys, all on different limbs at different levels. Some monkeys are climbing up, some down. The monkeys on top look down and see a tree full of smiling faces. The monkeys on the bottom look up and see nothing but assholes.(I stole that quote )
http://youtu.be/CdKoviNMmNE-
christof Govaerts
On 24 Aug, 2012
@NuN
Welcome in the world of "realpolitik", always has been, always will be. The only difference is that when time passes by, the numbers become bigger, in this case astronomical big...-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 24 Aug, 2012
Christof,
I can not imagine Merkel running up the stairs like Rocky once did ,while she is shouting who is your daddy now ! right after Samaras G-spotted her.
I do not want to see the steamy windows that they are trying to produce.Thank you very much
Please bring Monica Lewinsky back!She was and is the only real Captain Horn Blower!
What Can I say ?I thought I did my time in Hell:(
http://youtu.be/vTfINbT4JcA-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 24 Aug, 2012
This might bring out the Burberry rocker in you :)
http://youtu.be/TUfShooOeGQ-
christof Govaerts
On 24 Aug, 2012
@NuN
Aha, we have a Chris Rea fan apparently ! I personally liked the album wired to the moon. And especially the opening song "Bombolini", brings out the African beast in me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H7YVocYhEE-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 24 Aug, 2012
well I liked this one also.:)
http://youtu.be/3myI0IJmTlQ
Perhaps we must arrange a meeting between Christof Bombolini and Merkel .I am sure that after Christof Bombolini explained the big bang theory the african way to Merkel that she will see the light again.:) lol-
Christof
On 24 Aug, 2012
@NuN
I am always plenty of good will, i am not quite sure whether angela is ready, willing and able to receive some posivitive savannah vibes.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 24 Aug, 2012
Some other music for the Merkel meeting:)
http://youtu.be/TGbnJP8-7pM -
Theo
On 24 Aug, 2012
Merkel has this on her iPod
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9g2F0chybY&feature=related-
Christof
On 24 Aug, 2012
@theo
Yep, and equally the pet shop boys "how i am gonna get through" - what have i done to deserve this
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
From 2008 untill now we have created at least 11.000 billion dollar out of thin air and the results are?What are the results?The consumer is saving more and the banks are lending less.Make you wonder about the real effects of the keynesnetic velocity of free money.
Keynes was living in lalaland and a caviar socialist avant la lettre.
This however is real life and women rule.
What should we learn from them.Every good mother has savings.Every year they get a little something that they spend on the family.That little something are called interest rates.If you take that away from them you unleash the saving beast that is in them.They want to see their savings grow above the amount that they should have had if interest rate were normal.The reason is simply they want to feel secure.
And now even politicians are helping the saving beast by raising taxes
Economy is not about an equation but about feeling secure and about not feeling secure.You are not agreeing with.That doesn't matter because your wife is agreeing with me and that is what really matters. -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
I know what you will say;In Keynes lalaland people had no savings because they spend every dime.Because they spend every dime there is no unemployment and because of that the economy is growing.
But my question to Keynes is then If the consumer spends every dime who will buy leterme's free frisco bunds offerings then?
My question to the politicians is does it matter how high interest rates are if you don't need to borrow money.Perhaps you could reverse the cycle if you had money to save too.So,why aren't you doing the right thing?Free frisco"s are so over rated.
Too simple.Perhaps but I am but a simple man seeking simple solutions.And now please pass the kleenex.:)-
Christof
On 25 Aug, 2012
If you know what i am gonna say, i don't need to answer then :-) but seriously, aboit your remark about the saving/ investment disequilibrium, i have no problem with that. Problem is like you say as well that how spending occurs : on (too) much borrowed money. Now by meqns of agressive monetary policy and zero rates, you won't solve that problem. Keynes in fact warned for that and for the limitsvof monetary policy : the liquidity trap is a keynesian phenomenon, hence his approach by budgetary means even if it requires deficit spending. But that is another debate and you know my point of view on that as well (see my counter cyclical blog on sweden and chile)
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Christof,
I wouldn't dare to put words into your mouth or trying to read your mind but if Keynes was living today his theory would have been a different one.He would have taking into account that economies are no longer closed but global.He would have recognized the effects of ''communicating vessels'.But how could he?He was a child of his time.And to be fair.WW2 was the best way of dealing with the unemployed young men then and the post war reset button ,the Gutt operation did the rest.
Is this Europes future?Another Gutt Operation?-
Theo
On 25 Aug, 2012
@ NuN
Keynes was a child of his time, indeed, and in his time the world was a lot more global than ours is !
The sun never set on the British Empire... That was still very much true during Keynes time.
Also Christof is right. Keynes was in fact against deflation but that is not to say that he was pro inflation. On the contrary. He was very much against inflation. And most of all he would have been against running up budget deficits for 40 years.
Politicians and their Neo-Keynesian economic lackeys give a very wrong picture of what the General Theory actually says. Which only reinforces my thinking that they really don't know what they are doing.
There are other aspects which I don't like about Keynes theory, but this particular issue we cannot blame on him.
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Theo,
I do agree on the fact that the sun never setted on the british empire but what I mean is that if brittain injected money in the system in those days then they would get the tax revenue from it.That is no longer the case If Europe inject money into the system then only some of it will go to the european consumer buying asian goods the rest goes to the preventing of old debt not going completely worthless.
But you are right Keynes is often being used by politicians as the ultimate truth because control comes from above and they control it.Even if 0.0001 percent end up in their pockets it is still a fortune.-
Theo
On 25 Aug, 2012
@ NuN
When you have a total implicit and explicit debt of 500% of GDP and a current sovereign debt to service of 100% of GDP and private "savings" of 100% of GDP... no amount of money you inject in the system would ever end up in anybody's hands under any shape or form. It's just flows without stocks.
In Keynes time the Government was a very small part in the macro economic equation. Today the G is the macro economic equation. There is hardly any other game in town in the EZ.
15 years ago hardly anybody in Belgium had a credit card. Everybody had black money. then the government did the free white-wash operation and everybody brought they black money to Belgium and the banks gave everybody a credit card and a 30 year mortgage in exchange. The really clever Europeans took their money to Hong Kong and Singapore.-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Theo,
That too and I agree with you.I am not sure but in the fifthies the belgian income tax was about 28 percent and we didn't have VAT.then.I really do not understand people.Didn't they now that a house hasn't got wheels?A house is the best next thing to tax for a government.Investing in real estate is the most stupid thing to do when your are dealing with a money hungry government.
They calculated that real estate is worth more then a trillion euro now.Why do you think that is?
-
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Theo,
I tried to look up the average income tax in the fifthies and what I found was this old NBB report.Remember the figures are in francs.What can I say if Belgium was a stock and the debt growth was the growth in free cash flow Then 1 share of Belgium Inc would have rising from 1 dollar to 1.750.000 dollar now.
http://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/Publications/NBBreport/Archives/NBB1955AR.ihqc.pdf -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
post war Belgium looked alot like today.The problems are the same only they are so much bigger.
-
Christof
On 25 Aug, 2012
@NuN & Theo
Thanks for putting things into perspective. The debate goes further than who is right or wrong on the so called right (austrian) or left (keynes). End of the line is that sadly enough we postpone something else. Now the question here for me is as follows and let us brings in schumpeter : suppose you believe in creative destruction and suppose you believe in free markets. Suppose you have the power to act accordingly and mess things up, let 3000 banks go bankrupt as was the case in 1931/1932 in the US. Now with what has happened at hindsight in the thirties and what iis happening right now in spain, would you still take the political and social risk to do so anyway ? I for one do not, i prefer on this level cholera above pleague, even if i am fully aware to be part of growing economic ponzi
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Christof,
I do not believe in the christian saying that children are all born good.I believe in Von Mises when he says that Man is born as an asocial and antisocial being. The newborn child is a savage. Egoism is his nature. Only the experience of life and the teachings of his parents, his brothers, sisters, playmates, and later of other people force him to acknowledge the advantages of social cooperation and accordingly to change his behavior.
So free markets can't mean No Rules and creative destruction what does that really mean ?You enjoy it and have developed a taste for it:) It sounds like a real oxymoron to me.But there must be a middle way?
The problem that we have is rather simple governments will have to reduce in size.That can happen the easy way or the hard way but there is no EZ way out.
I guess it will be the hard way because the only one stepping up the plate was Draghi and all the rest failed in a very big way.
Not that I like what he did but it was the only thing he could do to buy Europe some time.I only hope that EU governments will not fuck up this time but until now they always have.I hope that I am so wrong about this. -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
and that brings us to another problem.I do think that the debt issue can resolved but we have an even bigger problem.The lack of talent to rebuild our economy because a job as a civil servant has become so rewarding that almost every talented young men and women have a degree with a future civil servant carrie in mindr.
-
Theo
On 25 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
Let's suppose that I believe in free market and in creative destruction... Then how come we keep having recurring crisis in this free market where creative destruction is possible?
People who use this argument about the plague and the cholera seem to have missed the point that the free market of Health has identified the causes of epidemics and creative destruction has lead to development of either vaccines or medicines for them and ways to deal with them when and where they occur.
During the 100 year history of the FED model of central banking and financial epidemics, no creative destruction has occurred.
I have seen creative destruction occur in the free market in Asia and even in Bulgaria (funny they have all chosen for Monetary Authorities which are real free markets... ). But in western Europe and the USA I have only just seen destruction OF the free market .
the original Ponzi scheme was against the Law. The current Ponzi scheme is supported by the Laws and the lawmakers... so it's perfectly legal ! Nothing for you to feel bad about. -
Theo
On 25 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
I'm sure you know why HSBC left Hong Kong after the Asian Economic crisis and established its HQ in London and went global?
It is because it foreclosed the mortgages or recalled the loans of many of its customers. When the crisis was over nobody in Hong Kong wanted to bank with them. So they moved out and became a "global bank" . Did the government of Hong Kong try to stop them or beg them to stay? No. They give people the choice which bank to use for whatever reason. Last time I checked there is plenty of choice too.
Now that is what I call free market and creative destruction.-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 25 Aug, 2012
Theo,
It is a long time ago but what I do remember about the asian crisis is "that is was their fault" so nobody in Europe gave a fuck about it.
And they learned the hard way and how, but I wouldn't call it creative destrution rather a very painfull learning curve.
-
-
Christof
On 26 Aug, 2012
@theo & NuN
It's not that i don't belive in creative destruction, it's merely the case that i don't wanna know the consequences if undertaken right now. Now NuN gives some arguments about the asian crisis way back in 1997 and learning the hard way (also credit bubble btw). Now Spain is already evidence of this. So my question would be : if we allow legions of unemployed kicking in at 25 percent and more, what would be the outcome then in socio-political terms, not even mentioning the misery that is accompanied with it ? Again, that's a very dangerous environment to take care off. Creative destruction is immediately destructive and only creative in the medium long term. what happens in between however can also be very important on other levels -
Christof
On 26 Aug, 2012
@theo and Nun
And talking about justice of this entire crisis : if we suppose creative destruction can heal the system, i for one am not going to explain this towards the majority of people who will get the sack and had absolutely nothing to do with this crisis from the start. Now some will always get hit whatever the business cycle correction. In this case we are talking about size of a different nature -
Theo
On 26 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
I like it when you go all street gangster "Your Money or Your Life" on us ;-)
According to Our Dear PES Leader Stanishev there are 5.5 million unemployed youths in the EU. He has a plan for them... and he is hoping they all vote for the Socialists in the next elections so they can "take Europe in the right direction"...
He plans to get them all jobs at the modest cost of just EUR 55 billion... Perhaps he's planning to create the Youthopean Union with just half the European Union budget...
In Our Dear EU Leaders we trust.
After all where would we all be without them right now?
You are right - this is not a credit & asset bubble crisis caused by trying to inflate our way out of pre-existing excessive debt, all in the name of the Great European Project... This is nothing more but a natural disaster, like The Great Flood !!! after all to deal with it Our Dear EU Leaders invoked the Natural Disaster clause
We will all be fine, as long as we follow them and take them in our daily prayers. They deserve our wholehearted support after getting us thus far across the EU desert.
Could Herman please get up a mountain and come back down with a Decalogue from his talks with God. We'll put them in stone and call it The Ten Euro Suggestions -
Christof
On 26 Aug, 2012
@Theo
And I like it when when some one erudite and well informed tempers my naive conscience :-)
I know, pleague, cholera or typhus, this is where we are heading. Other options are civil war, revolution, God knows what. But doing something drastic right now for the sake of change - dramatic change and system overhaul - will cause collateral damage and a huge amount of inocent victims. If this can be avoided by opting for pleague/cholera, i am inclined to chose the latter. Lost generations in economics are the worst of the worst, the Irish people for one are aware of that. When for example in 1931/1932 the financial system was cleaned up in the US, with a couple of thousand banks being allowed to go bust, the depression kicked in and we solved that one in the end by war. That's my concern when people talk about creative destruction.-
Theo
On 26 Aug, 2012
Creative destruction is a constant process of mutation which incessantly revolutionases an industry from within. It is like the Continuous Improvement from The Toyota Way.
What you are talking about in the 1930s was a collapse of a system gone totally wrong... like now.
Those are two very different things, in my humble opinion.
I don't want to see civil or any other wars in Europe as a way to deal with political and financial stupidity.
Btw the war has already started. The Middle East is the new Poland
-
-
Christof
On 27 Aug, 2012
@theo
Sorry but i tend to disagree here. When schumpeter refers to creative destruction, i thought he conceived it as a natural proces of companies and industries coming up and fading away with free competition being the grease of this proces. Now first of all, free market has always been an illusion (if the majority of companies can survive over a considerable timespan and making profits, we don't have free markets). I always find it fascinating and dangerous as well that people give the market something like being natural, absolute, a religious kind of thing imposed by some kind of God. It isn't and all kind of markets do not function like that. The labour market for instance is also a monopolistic competition framework and there are arguments to mention why this is not such a bad thing. Now competition can help to move things forward, for the better, i admit that (techologic evolution eg). But on a macro level imposing creative destruction is not something which is realized in 1 2 3. Vicious circles and chain reactions do exist, that is the whole keynesian point, imbalances are not always counted by other imbalances, they very often enforce one another. -
Christof
On 27 Aug, 2012
@Theo
Lifting this to a more philosophical level, just analyze the term creative destruction. Its inventor might have put this forward as a catchy paradox/aphorism, for me it immediately rings the bell of Pilatus. It destroys but don't worry, that's OK because it's creative and hence for the better. As are other terms of capitalism such as the invisible hand. The neutral "it" is always right, mr market has decided this way and who are we to counter this "neutral" truth ? So we can safely wash our hands in innocence. And that is for me the danger, to the extent that we have become actors in an a-moral ecnomic system of thinking, usually leading to im-morality. The subprime crisis was also a logical outcome with the product being shifted around from one balance sheet to the other and with no one having final responsability : the real estate broker sells on commission (why should he care if the loan is OK), the bank goes to wall street and the product ends up in some school or charity organization's portfolio. And along the chain, no one carries final responsability -
Nacht Und Nebel
On 27 Aug, 2012
Christof,
I already agreed with you on creative destruction but buying indulgences from Yves de Borghia will not ensure us a place in heaven either.
You discribed the former hot potato passing but then again passing the hot potato once again will not cool the problem.I am afraid that the potatoes are simply too hot for that.
I also agree with Theo,change is a constant .Not willing to change just because you are a saber tooth tiger (the top of the food chain) will get you killed. -
Christof
On 27 Aug, 2012
@NuN
All fair and square. Still, when it comes to choices, I rather think twice in this case before jumping into a very big unknown.-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 27 Aug, 2012
Christof,
Every morning when you wake up you are stepping into the big unkwown.But then again,you are still kicking,still breathing so the big unknown isn't that bad place to be.After all consider the alternative;the big known.
http://www.kampenhout.be/img/illustraties/begraafplaats-kampenhout.jpg
The big known is a place six feet under.-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 27 Aug, 2012
Heaven is no place for a nookie cookie addict :)
-
-
-
Nacht Und Nebel
On 27 Aug, 2012
The EU faces the Herman Paradox.It is not because that you haven't said anything that you have said the right things simply because you haven't said anything wrong.
To be silent is an other way of shouting. -
Theo
On 27 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
Joseph Schumpeter in his work entitled "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy" (1942) to denote a "process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one"
Schumpeter goes so far as to say that the "process of creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism."
I do agree that it is one of those over used and overly bent concepts... misappropriated by the tech industry... and nowadays mainly associated with the dot com boom and bust
OK I get now that we have a different idea of what it means.
I was confused why you would talk about starting a process of creative destruction on a system which in fact is collapsing and needs a total overhaul precisely because it hasn't been through creative destruction for 100 years... except for the wars which have served as ways of "system reset"-
christof Govaerts
On 27 Aug, 2012
@Theo
It is not that we disagree that much. My main concern is that when people start to say "it's normal, it's a normal aspect of the system so it's good", you have to think twice. I think Schumpeter was naieve in claiming that it's normal and because it creates something new out of the ashes, it always creates something better. The same argument goes in reverse for Marxism by the way : the theory says thesis-antithesis as an ongoing process but suddenly it should stop at synthesis. Why should the synthesis not be a new thesis which will be confronted by a new anti-thesis ? I know that with this last argument I contradict myself (in fact a lot :-) but for me it goes deeper than that. If you cut the moral argument out of the line of thinking, you're bound asking for trouble. And yes we live in a ponzi structure and the system is rotten : but that doesn't automatically imply for me that letting capitalism doing its job of creative destruction is the only solution going forward.
-
-
Theo
On 27 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
Have you read "Parade's End" by Ford Madox Ford ? If you haven't, you should. -
christof Govaerts
On 27 Aug, 2012
@Theo
I just did some research on this epic novel : In December 2010, John N. Gray hailed it as "possibly the greatest 20th-century novel in English"
So that seems to be very interesting indeed, thanks for the link !!-
Theo
On 27 Aug, 2012
@ Christof
It is indeed. But more to the point it is a story of people dealing with the kind of issue you are talking about.
There is also a BBC costume drama adaptation which has started, a co-production with America and partly filmed in Belgium.
But the books are wonderful.
-
