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Flu pandemic: too much panic or cause for concern? - update
The Mexican swine flu is turning into a panic. The fear for a pandemic is real, and the US has issued a national health alert.
Stock markets in Asia have reacted negativelythis morning on the news. It brings back memories of the 2002-2003 SARS panic. This near-pandemic was especially dangerous in China. But massive prevention measures limited the impact, and the pandemic never materialized on a global scale.
Roche, producer of Tamiflu, will probably have a more positive day than the other stocks.
Update:it appears that the current Tamiflu vaccin is not protecting against this 'swine flu' virus mutation. This means that new vaccins will have to be produced.
Three preliminary conclusions on this pandemic threat:
1. The world economy is already very sick, and new headwinds are really the last thing it needs.
2. On the other hand, the economic consequences of SARS worldwide were overestimated. The total number of victims amounted to around 1,000 - much less than feared. Mass implemented protection and prevention helped a lot. Don't forget that such things are even more difficult in China than in other countries.
3. Pandemic fears have been around for some while, and scientists have warned for this risk. Given increased travel and the globalisation, such local problems are indeed becoming very quickly global issues ...
8 Comments
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koen2
On 27 Apr, 2009
Chinese virologist: "We are counting down to a pandemic" & "WHO is always very cautious about raising its alert system but its wasting time"
http://twitter.com/Veratect -
Theo
On 27 Apr, 2009
Do not use Tamiflu on kids and young adult.
It has known and reported neurological and psychiatric adverse reactions, such as self mutilation and suicide. -
koen2
On 27 Apr, 2009
the big question remains of course why patients outside mexico don't die from the flu, while many have already died in mexico (up to 200, according to some accounts)
the second question is: how big will the economic damage be,
if it remains 'benign' outside mexico, the damage will probably remain 'superficial', but if it turns malignant, like in Mexico, the damage could be catastrophic:
mexico city is negotiating to end all economic activities in the city, and is about to close the air- and busports and even the metro, if that doesn't help, it will launch its 'plan B'
even if the flu outside Mexico remains benign (few deaths), me may get a
El gobierno de la ciudad de México negocia con empresarios y con el gobierno federal detener las actividades económicas en la capital, ante la epidemia de influenza porcina que según cifras oficiales ha afectado a mil 384 personas, de las cuales 929 han sido dadas de alta, 374 permanecen hospitalizadas y 81 han muerto.
La suspensión total de actividades se determinará en función de la evolución de los casos de contagio y el número de fallecimientos, explicó el jefe del gobierno capitalino, Marcelo Ebrard.
...
Ebrard explicó que en una escala de 1 a 10, la ciudad se halla en el nivel 8. “Llegar al máximo nivel significaría cerrar el aeropuerto y las terminales de autobuses, entre otras”, afirmó. No descartó incluso suspender el servicio del Metro.
Para el gobernante local esta semana es crítica para frenar la propagación del virus, pues mencionó que epidemiológicamente se requieren 10 días para cortar la cadena de transmisión.
Dijo que si las acciones tomadas actualmente no contribuyen al control de la epidemia, está listo “un plan B”, del cual no dio detalles.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/primera/32884.html -
koen2
On 27 Apr, 2009
From an article, written in 2006, there seems to exist a close correlation between sunsport minima and influenza pandemics:
A hypothesis: Sunspot cycles may detect pandemic influenza A in 1700–2000 A.D.
On top of virological and epidemiological surveillance, sunspot cycles may be an inexpensive and easy method to detect influenza pandemics. The next high risk period will be around 2008–2013 and it may suggest us to be more alert and be prepared in order to minimize unnecessary deaths as a result of influenza.
http://www.journals.elsevierhealth.com/periodicals/ymehy/article/PIIS0306987706002726/abstract
The missing sunspots: Is this the big chill?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-missing-sunspots-is-this-the-big-chill-1674630.html
The disappearance of sunspots happens every few years, but this time it’s gone on far longer than anyone expected – and there is no sign of the Sun waking up. “This is the lowest we’ve ever seen. We thought we’d be out of it by now, but we’re not,” says Marc Hairston of the University of Texas. -
Theo
On 27 Apr, 2009
the first and second contamination fazes (from pig to man and man to man) are the most deadly as they are direct.
After that the contamination is not direct and thus less deadly. Reasons are unclear and speculation is not my forte.
On the other hand this type is more contagious than bird flu, due to the fact that it is carried from man to man, as opposed to from bird to man.
There are already over 1000 cases and over 100 dead. -
Frank
On 27 Apr, 2009
It seems that the US savings pig is affected and close to death also.
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Jelle Lenaerts
On 27 Apr, 2009
Aren't we a bit overdoing this threat ?
It seems more like SARS, which in the end, was much less deadly than feared.
Anyway, I agree with Frank, that the savings pig pandemic has been more deadly for the US ! -
Jan Holvoet
On 28 Apr, 2009
Tamiflu is not a vaccin at all, it's an antiviral which helps contain (but not cure or prevent) influenza.
