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Recent stories in Financial
Credit vs Capital
Gastopinie door FrankThe Fed and the ECB are constantly talking about "re-capitalizing" banks. If I hear something like that, my limited brain signals two things:1. Commercial banks are short of capital2. Central banks are not short of capital since they give some to banks Hmmm. Central banks can give capital to commercial ...
Inflatie versus deflatie
Gastopinie door FrankDe CPI stond nog geen uur negatief of de eerste inflatie-deflatienonsens verscheen al in de media. Laten we beginnen met een citaat in het middagnieuws van 28 mei van Paul D'hoore:"Inflatie is goed voor de economie maar slecht voor de portemonee, deflatie is goed voor de portemonee maar slecht voor de ...
Impact of climate change on investment behavior
Investment managers are still lagging in response to climate change risks and opportunities, according to a study of Ceres , a coalition of investors, environmental organizations and public interest groups. Although there is overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is ...
Het echte begrotingswerk blijft uit
Voor wie de Belgische begrotingsperikelen al enkele decennia volgt, heeft het allemaal een hoog déjà vu -gehalte. Meer bepaald alluderen we hier op de cijferpirouettes en de argumentatieve creativiteit van de verschillende betrokken partijen naar aanleiding van het grote begrotingstekort in België en het daaraan ...
Friday's guest post - Technology, Media and pancakes
We have been announcing it, trying to avoid it but there was simply no escaping from it. My dear friend colleague Nikolaas Bellens has crossed the Rubicon and provided me with the following deeper insights originating from his darker side. And to some extend, he is turning back the clock, violating physics and denying historical ...
A note on Munchau and QE - unintended consequences
Today Wolfgang Munchau in the FT focuses on QE European style and why an Anglo-saxon style QE would be to be preferred. Now I would like to focus on the first part because Munchau has a very good point here, something which we recently have stressed and focused upon in another framework, cfr ...
Update of trends in FX
Some weeks ago we mentioned the current pressure on some safe havens in keeping their currency peg. In the case of the European periphery, the game is focused on Switzerland and Denmark, having all the trouble in the world to stop appreciating following the declining faith in the single currency (or at least in some of its ...
A long hot weekend dito summer
Yesterday we had triple whammy : 28 Spanish banks dramatically downgraded & Moodys threatening to cut the Spanish sovereign to junk ; then came the news that Monte dei Paschi will be bailed by the Italian government through means of so-called Tremonti bonds. And finally the presentation of Herman Van Rompuy's 7 page road map ...
Growth pact - France, Chile & Sweden
With the new French winds blowing at the Elysée, the debate on a growth pact gathers momentum: briefly “piano piano” on austerity and public investment providing the growth kicker EMU urgently needs. Also the IMF issued some warnings earlier on that moving too quickly on austerity might in the end even be counterproductive. The ...
Post 06/05 reality check - If we only had time
Have we witnessed a kind of decisive paradigm shift in Europe over the weekend ? It might still be too soon to conclude this but in political terms, some important events indeed took place. In order of importance : 1) Greek chaotic election result and not workable in the short term. Already after a couple of hours, leading party ND ...
Destroying the recovery ex-ante ?
A funny thing happened this week with a remarkable change of tactics inside the FOMC, the rate decision organ of the Federal Reserve. Whilst almost every one was anticipating some form of new (h)opium to please the bulls, the minutes of the March meeting showed exactly the opposite. Some might argue that these minutes from the FED ...
Some reflections over G-Day
Another day in the sovereign debt saga, another hurdle taken. The Greek government overnight has announced it has reached its target in the biggest sovereign restructuring in history. The participation rate among investors amounts 95,7%. Bondholders tendered 152 bio EUR of Greek-law bonds (85,8%), complemented by 20 bio EUR of ...
Dear Mr(s) Credit Rator, Part II
In my previous posting dd 16/01, I forgot to mention some important leverage factors as well. I therefore take the privilege to give you an update with new numbers, taken from a very recent McKinsey study on global debt and debt deleveragingThe following chart gives you the facts on the composition of total debt across main ...















