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Krugman en de maakbaarheid van de economie
De openlijke steun van Paul Krugman voor François Hollande is tekenend voor de Amerikaanse topeconoom. Hij schuwt geen duidelijke keuze, en is niet de typische tweehandige econoom (“on the one hand, on the other hand”). Het grote voordeel van de duidelijkheid heeft ook een nadeel. De huidige crisis wordt daardoor al snel een ...
Belgian public finances: spending above its means
Today is the day that the draft for the 2012 Belgian public budget should have been finalized. Unfortunately, in absence of a government, and in absence of any consensus, there is no such draft ready. Welcome in the country named "later" or "almost there". A quick glance at the numbers learns were the problem is situated in our ...
3 reasons why the EU wants rating agencies to shut op for a while
The Financial Times Deutschland mentioned the fact that the EU is thinking about a ban on rating agencies issuing ratings on eurozone countries. It could be said that the ratings agencies are like thermometers that provoke a rise of temperature. But this is probably not the right angle to look at this possible action. The reason ...
Drachmetisering van de euro
Het vertrek van Jürgen Stark kan nauwelijks overschat worden. Het komt na het vertrek van Axel Weber eerder dit jaar. De ECB zal nu in handen komen van de Italiaan Mario Draghi, met als vice-voorzitter de Portugees Vitor Constancio. Alleen een verhuis van Frankfurt naar Milaan ontbreekt nog. De reden voor het vertrek is duidelijk. ...
Central bankers have become daytraders of our economy
Once upon a time, central bankers were anonymous, not known to the broad public. They managed silently the liquidity needs and money flows in the banking system. Under the Greenspan-era, they have become more active, intervening in the markets, and increasing their ambitions. Today, central bankers see their role very broadly, ...
Euroland at stallspeed
Stall speed is the speed at which aircrafts do not get enough lift to fly. It is the perfect description of the pace of growth in the US and the eurozone. With quarter-on-quarter growth near zero in the 17-eurozone countries, growth momentum has come to a halt. As GDP growth numbers are lagging sentiment indicators (see main ...
Pijnloze oplossing is fictie
(deze tekst verscheen in De Standaard afgelopen weekend) - Geert Noels, hoofdeconoom en stichter van de vermogensbeheerder Econopolis, zegt dat de tijd van schuldgedreven groei definitief voorbij is. Hij waarschuwt voor kwakzalvers die ons naar de afgrond brengen. Politici en bankiers zouden moeten kijken naar ...
The Greek bailout: wasted money
If you ask a frog to come up with a plan for draining a swamp, you are likely to end up with a proposal for more flooding.An inverse wealth tax That is the conclusion of Harald Hau , finance professor at Insead. the bailout is unlikely to end the problems with Greece and the eurozone. Why did the EU made such a bad ...
US debt ceiling and debt monetization
Europe is in the midst of a financial crisis. But the US is also experiencing a debt crisis. The discussion about the so-called " debt ceiling" hides a more fundamental problem: the appetite of foreigners for US debt has been disappearing. Only China and the US Federal Reserve are willing to ...
China-Forest
China is slowing down. How much we do not know. Macro-economic numbers are not always reliable, but China makes a league of its own. Official growth numbers were still around 10% in Q1 2011, but they were probably closer to 6%. A story you might have missed, is the Canadian-Chinese version of Madoff. A company named ...
Financial Crash Investigation
Central banks, Ministers of Finance, Regulators, CEO's from banks, and everybody working in the financial industry should watch "Air Crash Investigation" on National Geographic Channel. They show how the financial industry should learn and deal with every accident, even the smallest ones.Watching television is not really my ...
Bring back the "haruspex" please
The IMF and OECD remain quite confident that the world economy is just undergoing a soft patch. (Bank) economists have been issuing buy-recommendations on equities, corporate and high yield bonds, Greek debt and the new Coldplay-CD. The latter is a good reference point, because just like some recent Coldplay-songs, we have a ...
Gold replaces AAA
The problems with Greece are not an isolated case. Solving the Greek crisis without a reflection on a long chain of monetary and economic errors would be a complete waste of money. Our political leaders should look far beyond the Greek problems and evaluate their economic and financial policies over a period as long as ...
Greece: saving the Summer season but not the economy
Yesterday's narrow confidence vote is a first step for Greece to let the austerity plan approve by the Greek Parliament. In our view, Greece and Europe were faced with a catastrophy: a Greek default in the midst of the Summer, and worse the midst of the Greek touristic season. Such a disaster can still happen. The EU needed however ...
3 vragen over Griekenland
1. Is een Griekse schuldherschikking onvermijdelijk ? 'Een of andere aanpassing van de terugbetalingsmodaliteiten van de Griekse schuld is niet te vermijden. Voorbeelden daarvan zijn een verlenging van de looptijd, het overslaan of kapitaliseren van een rentebetaling, het nemen van een 'haircut' (bijvoorbeeld aanvaarden ...















