Today, we have reserved a guest post for Jan De Blonde who is very actively engaged in sustainable farmland investment abroad. Jan is ...
My friend the equity racehorse sent me me the following interesting link which appeared on Dutch television and which basically ...
Vorige zondag (6 mei 2012) verscheen het volgend interview in De Zondag:
Elk jaar omtrent deze tijd publiceert BP zijn Statistical Review of World Energy. Bijna 50 pagina’s grotendeels gevuld met tabellen ...
Door een abrupt beëindigde skivakantie (nauwelijks 50 meter op de latten gestaan) bracht ik de rest van de week haast immobiel en al ...
Well, it's not exactly Moody's but more precisely Fitch, sending out messages which are "surprising" to say the least. Remember ...
Davos, setting of the Thomas Mann novel "Der Zauberberg" and sheltering famous people throughout history such as ...
Following our adventures in today's every changing moods in the world of finance, it's not a bad thing to assess volatility as a ...
You may remember I wrote a piece on Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) , Heineken and Fraser & Neave (F&N) when I was in Singapore earlier ...
My dear friend Sideshow Bob sent me a short note which I think deserves some attention. It opens up the discussion on one of the most ...
Geen kat die deze stelling zal betwisten, maar de impact ervan op de Chinese economie wordt vermoedelijk zwaar onderschat. We hebben ...
De kogel is door de kerk, iedereen van ons kan straks aandeelhouder van Facebook worden. Intekenen op een IPO is echter niet altijd ...
Apple kwam de afgelopen week met de langverwachte medeling over hun spaarpot van 100 miljard $. Een mogelijke overname is nog niet in ...
On March 14th, the Media Innovation Center was launched (under the wings of the IBBT) and baptized 'Mix'. Its goal is to support and ...
Yesterday Fitch released a report with some arithmetics and outlook on the ageing population and how the developed west so far has ...
According to the World Economic Forum, Canadian banks have been ranked as the soundest and most safe banks world-wide, this for 5 ...
Gemini, the immortal twins Castor and Pollux, in this case Dublin and Cork. We picked up an interesting story from out of Bloomberg ...
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The problems with Greece are not an isolated case. Solving the Greek crisis without a reflection on a long chain of monetary and economic errors would be a complete waste of money. Our political leaders should look far beyond the Greek problems and evaluate their economic and financial policies over a period as long as ...
De voorzitter van de Europese centrale bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet, heeft gezegd dat het licht op rood staat: "On a personal basis I would say it is red," Trichet told reporters when asked what color the European Systemic Risk Board's traffic light warning system was displaying in relation to the debt turmoil.Trichet had net de ...
For some months now, the Basel Committee is pondering on how to tackle the issues of systemic risk. It seems the outcome might well be something along the lines of "agreed it's moral hazard but it's OK".End of April, Reuters leaked a Bundesbank initiative to set up a so-called SIFI list (Systemically Important Financial ...
Yesterday's narrow confidence vote is a first step for Greece to let the austerity plan approve by the Greek Parliament. In our view, Greece and Europe were faced with a catastrophy: a Greek default in the midst of the Summer, and worse the midst of the Greek touristic season. Such a disaster can still happen. The EU needed however ...
Are we at the beginning of a China Credit Crunch ? We have been posting on the issue on other occasions in a different spotlight, namely the fact that official monetary policy so far had no significant impact on the Chinese financial sector in terms of curbing credit growth (see copper financing tool). Over the past couple of days, ...
"Reprofiling", "structured default", "volontary re-investment of proceeds" , we lately have been avalanched by numerous euphimisms on something very straightforward : Greece and Europe are in dire straits, a very precarious situation to say the least. On the Greek restructuring and how to organize it, the battle over semantics is ...
The next article appeared in De Standaard and expresses the views of Geert Noels & Econopolis on the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis : De banken: risktakers moeten mee betalen. 'Tot voor zes maanden was de aanpak van het Grieks probleem: steeds meer geld op tafel leggen. Maar langzaam maar zeker evolueert het in een andere ...
Bill Gross is in a tight corner. Having announced his big short position on US Treasuries a couple of weeks ago and being accused of being a "bond vigilante", it seems Mr Market is turning his back on him and making him loose a considerable amount of money for Pimco. So lately we spot some laughs on various blogs, just for the ...
In an interesting speech addressing the London School of Economics (13/06), JC Trichet elaborates on the pros and cons of monetary and economic policy in EMU, this in comparison with the US. Some slides of his presentation, and in particular 1, tells a lot. The picture below just depicts to what extend convergence on ...
On Wednesday, UK banks were in the spotlight for two main reasons. First of all, the preliminary disappointing results of operation "Merlin", a deal between the UK government and the large banks on bank lending targets. Second, the large private banks' reaction to the ring-fencing initiatives of the Independent Commission on ...
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled, was convincing the world he didn't exist" (Verbal Kint, "The Usual Suspects"). A same line of reasoning applies to the current inflation/deflation debate, the official approach by policy makers and what we are supposed to believe.When it comes to inflation and remarks on the subject, some ...
About a year ago, the following joke circulated in financial markets worldwide when the sovereign debt crisis broke out : Rather than work hard, live within his means and save for the future, a dissolute student decided to invent a system for beating the bank at roulette. After months of experimentation with betting ...
The following story is not new and only a few blogs considered it to be important enough to focus on. It nevertheless merits attention because it blows your mind in various ways. And I needed some time to digest the story before commenting it, simply because it is so unreal.Last Thursday, Bloomberg reported on the special open ...
This week, we saw some strong intervention from rating agency Moody's on 2 fronts : Australia and Denmark. In both cases, it concerned the state of the financial sector and in both cases, the motivation of the move should be scrutinized.In the case of Australia, the country's four largest banks were cut by one notch from Aa1 to ...
Following the successful launch of Microsoft bonds late last year, Google has ensured itself a long term funding at benign market conditions. Too good to be true or are there other market forces at work ?Let's first recapitulate the operations Microsoft (AAA) executed in autumn 2010. In September, it issued corporate bonds for a ...
Last Thursday we witnessed some fireworks on financial markets : Volatility once again going global. And this time, no major economic forecast triggered the mass selling mode. Starting point of this little story goes back to the “famous inaugural” press conference from the FED last week. To briefly summarize ...
Uit Knack:U twitterde: ‘Beseffen ze bij de ECB dat het een fout signaal is om Mario Draghi te benoemen tot directeur?’ Waarom? Noels: "Mario Draghi is zo kort na de financiële crisis niet de figuur die breekt met het verleden. Hij had een vooraanstaande functie bij investeringsbank Goldman Sachs in de periode toen de crisis ...
1. Is een Griekse schuldherschikking onvermijdelijk ? 'Een of andere aanpassing van de terugbetalingsmodaliteiten van de Griekse schuld is niet te vermijden. Voorbeelden daarvan zijn een verlenging van de looptijd, het overslaan of kapitaliseren van een rentebetaling, het nemen van een 'haircut' (bijvoorbeeld aanvaarden ...
A lot of comments these days focus on the fact that we don´t understand the so-called strength of the EURO - in view of the reflaring of the sovereign debt crisis - and the fact that the USD is way too weak. Some nuances need to be made.
Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone,
There's an old Irish joke about a guy who's lost and desperately looking for the road to Kilearney. When encountering a farmer and asking for the right direction, the answer comes straight : "If you're heading for Kilearney, I wouldn't depart from here". Chinaman's dilemma is identical. The detour ...
"I don't trust automatic pilot, I wanna be myself when the fall-out comes..."D. Blanchart - "Living in a cockpit". 2008 was a period where world markets suffered a correlated crash with virtually every asset class collapsing in an unprecedented fashion. Can it happen again ?
Rating agencies : when the music plays, you most of the time don't need them around and when the music stops, you really don't want them to be around. Yesterday, after years of not being welcome to the party, Moody's invited itself once again and guess what : They even gave a round of free drinks !
One week into the Japanese drama and we have already witnessed some important developments on the financial front. As usual, just follow the flows.
James Dean will always be remembered for 1 famous scene in "Rebel without a cause". The scene depicts two teenage opponents competing for the favours of a sixteen year old girl, played by Natalie Wood. Both young turks drive a car at full speed towards a cliff. He who jumps as the first from his car is called the ...
Last Thursday, a rather hawkish ECB press conference took the investors' community by surprise. It seems that April will end the period of extreme low interest rates in Europe. Some even argue that the ECB is on the verge of repeating the July 2008 rate hike mistake (4%-4,25%). Why is the ECB worried and what's at ...
The latest string of monthly figures on foreign holdings of US Treasuries gives some surprising results : Of the big global players, only Japan and Brazil keep on accumulating US debt at a steady pace. Opec, Russia and the Carribean seem to be losing interest while China apparently heralds status quo, if we believe the official ...
Apparently, 70% of all traded volume on the NYSE is not executed by human beings. Welcome to the world of algo trading and flash crashes, predatory trading, all explained by an 8th grade student.
Speaking on CNBC at a FDIC sponsored forum last week, FED chairman Bernanke was asked how quantittative easing could be called a success in view of rising interest rates and commodity price spikes. His answer revealed that the FED now officially admits having a third mandate : "Our policies have contributed to a stronger ...
De regeringsvorming in België moet een dubbele kloof overbruggen. De Noord/Zuidkloof is de eerste. De taalproblematiek is wellicht echter minder ernstig dan de Link/Rechts tegenstellingen, een tweede kloof.Door de uitputtingsslag die nu bezig is, groeit de roep om een snelle oplossing. Deze snel op te richten regering moet met ...
"Camelot, Camelot, Camelot !!!", yell the Knights of the Round Table when finally arriving at King Arthur's residence. Their optimism is quickly put down to earth when Concorde, the brave carrier, mumbles "it's only a model." FED Governor Yellen to some extend shared the same kind of enthusiasm last week, and equally we tend to ...
If he would have the chance, he would do it over again, in exactly the same way...Alan Greenspan has no regrets. The ICT bubble, the housing bubble, the credit bubble, all built on cheap money. The Greenspan era had two periods: a sound policy until 1996, then a period of easy money and monetary experiments. Curiously, after his ...
According to the CDS premia (source: FT)
Experts almost unanimously are pushing for a nationalisation of the banking sector, especially in the US. As this decision will determine to an important degree the next decade, it might be interesting to look at some counterarguments before deciding. The case for nationalisation can be summarised : ... the ...
De wet van Gresham is aan een demonstratie bezig in Europa: het goede geld wordt in snel tempo achter het slechte geworpen. De ECB is ontmaagd, Maastricht verkracht en de euro verdrachmet.
S&P has revised its outlook for Belgium from stable to negative. "We believe that Belgium's prolonged domestic political uncertainty poses risks to its government's credit standing, especially given the difficult market conditions many eurozone governments are facing" Some remarks: - S&P is lagging behind ...
"Don't fight the FED, they always come up with a perfect put option". So far so good when it comes to equities and some other assets. One exception : Mr Bond doesn't seem to go along anymore.
In a rare appearance before national broadcast, Ben Bernanke yesterday on CBS gave comment on the state of the economy and his intentions further up the road. Apparently it took 1 bad number - November pay-rolls released last Friday - to ring the alarm bells inside the FED. Just 1 month after QE2 has been announced, it seems QE3 is ...
The Fed will buy 600Bn USD debt ... "...the Committee intends to purchase a further 600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the ...
Ben Bernanke kept his promise and delivered. He didn't however gave as much as markets had hoped for. In golf terms, rather strike a couple of times with the new putter/wedge instead of using an iron 9 and hence completely miss the hole. Main question remains : a deliberate gradual strategy from now on, leaving the option for QE3 ...
Financial markets are focused on the message from the US central bank, today and tomorrow. It is widely expected that the Fed will continue its strategy of monetary stimulus aka Quantitative Easing. Quantitative Easing (QE) is a strategy of buying Treasury securities to put downward pressure on ...
De besparingen in het VK gaan diep: 93 miljard euro. De pensioenleeftijd wordt opgetrokken tot 66 jaar, de overheid moet ontvetten, alle departementen moeten bijdragen. De FT schrijft:Declaring that “today is the day where Britain steps back from the brink”, George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, revealed dramatic ...
From the October issue of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Review :
The market value of Apple has become bigger than that of the entire Belgian market. Apple is the second biggest US company in terms of market capitalisation. Apple has moved ahead of Microsoft, in a symbolic race for leadership in the IT-world. Steve Jobs probably does not know that he surpassed the total value of ...
Tensions are back again. While Greek spreads are reaching pre-bailout highs, also other euro countries are experiencing rising spreads on their bonds and CDS-premiums.Banking problems are resurfacing (Ireland with Anglo Irish and Greece with NBG), and as a result, the focus is on the risk of souvereign problems. The Irish debt is ...
The gold price continues to climb. On a log-scale, gold (in USD) is on a steady upward trend, with some corrections on the way.This could imply several things (some probably simultaneously): confidence in the banking system remains weak confidence ...
Do the wall street shuffle, watch the greenback tumble, feel the sterling crumble , you need a yen to make a mark....
Voor de liefhebbers van mooie economische grafieken:
From John Mauldin: We talked earlier about how increasing government debt crowds out the necessary savings for private investment, which is the real factor in increasing productivity. But there is another part of that equation, and that is the percentage of government spending in relationship to the overall economy. Let's look ...
