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Basel - Frankfurt : 0 - 5
Before turning to our little soccer game - which the Swiss supervisors apparently seem to be losing - we like to turn one more time to what is happening over in Frankfurt. After the successful LTRO of last December (489 bio EUR cash injection into banks), a new round of auctioning is heating up for 29/02. And it seems we are gonna ...
The Bernanke critics are wrong ?
The answer is "yes", that is if you read today's main article on Bloomberg. The main story line being : "The criticism about the FED being inflationary is not fact-based. Unemployment is slightly improving but far from inflationary levels. And though several republican presidential candidates are claiming Mr Bernanke is the most ...
Damaged collateral
The LTRO operation of late December by the ECB has relieved some tensions on money markets and bank funding cost in the short term. Indeed, libor spreads have come in considerably while certain government bonds have had a serious rally versus the core led by Bund. It doesn't stop quite there and the ECB is preparing another set of ...
Lucky shamrock performing Irish miracle escape ?
For once we have some good news to report, a glimmer of hope. Last week, Ireland managed to come to the international bond market on which it made a partial buy-back of existing debt (2014) and managed to roll it over into 2015 @ 4,9%. And it was a success with an announcement of more buy-backs in the pipeline. The Irish drama and ...
FED and 5 year "risk free" heading to 0% boundery
May you live in interesting times", so goes the English translation of a Chinese curse/proverb. And indeed we live in interesting times because the FOMC yesterday decided to shift the outlook on a 0% short term rate from 2013 to at least 2014. And at the same time, the FED made some choices on explicit inflation ...
On the IMF, sprints, marathons and hybrids
A funny string of recent events have captured my attention. And it involves the IMF and politics. May be far fetched but a warning as well towards various addressees, either politically, economically or both. And the IMF is balancing here on a thin line judging the noises we are recently hearing.First of all there was Christine ...
Middle East NIMBY
One of the many things not resolved yet but equally important going into 2012, is the the geo-political issue of Iran. End of late November, we reported on this story and it seems that some options have already materialized, such as the US and European embargo on Iranian oil. Or on any one doing business with Iran, in real goods or ...
Going French on sovereign debt solutions
When the going gets tough, the tough usually gets going. In the case of the sovereign debt crisis, we have the Greek discussions with private creditors coming to a halt and a March deadline coming up (will the IMF grant a new tranche of loans ?). In the US, we are getting prepared for a repetition of the debt ceiling debate of late ...
"Dear Mr(s) Credit Rator"
We in Europe - the old continent - have taken notice since late Friday that our credibility as a debtor has been put into question. We were warned earlier that something was waiting to happen. Now that it has materialized, I nevertheless have some questions running through my mind lately, based upon the following fundamentals ...
Something is rotten in the state of Uncle Sam
With the recent change in FED "speak" strategy, more transparent communication and the new composition of voting members within the FOMC - kingdom of the doves and the last hawk having left the building - market speculation is rising that a new round of QE3 will be announced very soon. On the desirability of such a new program and ...
Are we liquidity trapped ?
A liquidity trap is a situation when people are hoarding cash, this out of various reasons. A standard definition would say because people are expecting an adverse event, such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand or war. The classic debate between Keynesians and Austrians focus on the "why", not the fact that cash hoarding ...
On the Bundesbank, Kids & Credit Cards : Half a trillion, this time EUR
"Involuntary lending is what happens when your teenager figures out how to charge stuff to your credit card. The kid promises to pay for the purchases but never gets around it, so your involuntary loan keeps getting bigger. At some point it dawns on you that you might never get your money back" ...
Solely I owe the Flemish taxpayer 100%
After issuing a public tender, the Flemish government has apparently made a decision on their new preferred home banker. ING came out as the winner. And already a lot of fuzz going on that it's a shame a non-Belgian, or non Flemish banker for that matter, has been elected. Dexia has announced it will take the decision into ...
From Poupehan to Milan
A couple of days ago, our colleague Daan (presently studying at MIT) made a contribution on the desirability of installing a technocrat cabinet and whether it serves democracy. I think it deserves more attention, also in the light of what has been happening over the past couple of days in Italy with Giulio Tremonti presenting his ...
Paramo preparing us for an ECB silver bullet ??
Last Sunday (blog pick 1 out of 3), I took the liberty of freewheeling into the minds of our policy makers. We had already ruled out the EFSF or SPV/CDO option, both on grounds of credibility and political feasibility (Germany). But we also suggested that the ECB might be tempted to come into action but not as last resort buyer at ...
EEE : Crisis update & Echoes from Brussels
At the Econopolis Economic Encounters on 28/11, we had the pleasure to have Nouriel Roubini - Dr Doom & Gloom - and Ivan Van De Cloot, Chief Economist of Thinktank Itinera. Both were asked to pinpoint the state of play of the current financial crisis, their short & long term expectations and recommendations on the way forward. Dr ...
Pick 1 out of 3
So we finally came to an agreement and every one seems to be a winner. And that's how we are selling the story to the outside world, hoping they will buy it. Because that's all in the end that matters. I think we have 3 possible outcomes of which 2 out of 3 won't do the trick and 1 has the potential to trigger some "hup hup, barba ...
Kabuki
In our previous posting, we mentioned that not a lot of safe havens still exit in the world of today. Which sovereign bond can I trust, what kind of monetary system will be there the day after tomorrow etc. Recently we have seen some strange developments occurring in financial markets, confirmed by international investors net in- ...
So markets are burying JM Keynes....
...which is sad because we only have ourselves to blame ! And I honestly mean that in every sense of the word : sad and totally misplaced political self-pitty. Keynes is to Economics what Nietzsche has been to philosophy : basically a tragic personality and most of all wildly abused. And with an ironic side-kicker as the icing on ...
US Real Politik - Boomerang Part I
Politics and adapting to the new normal, it seems a bridge too far for many amongst us. And it's not restricted to Europe with its more than fair share of anglo-saxon media attention and frequent abuse. Pretty soon, it's back to Uncle Sam.During the silly season of 2011, we have witnessed a tough battle between bi-partizan ...
















