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Recent stories in Financial
A Primer on the "Magic Mountain"
Davos, setting of the Thomas Mann novel "Der Zauberberg" and sheltering famous people throughout history such as Arthur Conan Doyle, Robert L Stevenson and Ernst Ludwig Kirchner. Today, Davos is mainly famous for being an exclusive ski resort and the annual host of the World Economic Forum. A brief appetizer :
"Above all, we do not want to encourage speculation..."
Just when you thought the system has learned its lesson and we are on track for may be a fresh and more honest start, you come across the following stories. Well, it's not all bad but first chapter I or "Dreamland Revisited" : Dubai The risk of a property bubble resurfacing are clearly visible, either from out of ...
Dutch "Modernization"
In the age of new-speak and political lexicon, the Dutch show us the way by banning that ugly austerity word and replacing it by a more social acceptable term like "modernization" and "building bridges". And above "de moerdijk", that implies some EUR 16 bio of "modern" savings, ie EUR 1,000/capita or roughly 2,5% of GDP. In the ...
Housing update - The Gemini Portfolio
Gemini, the immortal twins Castor and Pollux, in this case Dublin and Cork. We picked up an interesting story from out of Bloomberg with the Irish unit of RBS liquidating its Dublin/Cork real estate portfolio. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc’s Irish unit offered to sell properties, including 640 apartments and a hotel, for about ...
My calculated Pension Risk
The age of financial repression is going global these days. And it hence shouldn't come as a surprise that large pension funds are not really happy with what monetary policy is fabricating in terms of QE and interest rates. As a consequence, some re-allocations are taking place. Yesterday, the news came in that Japan's Teacher's ...
A note on Munchau and QE - unintended consequences
Today Wolfgang Munchau in the FT focuses on QE European style and why an Anglo-saxon style QE would be to be preferred. Now I would like to focus on the first part because Munchau has a very good point here, something which we recently have stressed and focused upon in another framework, cfr ...
Update of trends in FX
Some weeks ago we mentioned the current pressure on some safe havens in keeping their currency peg. In the case of the European periphery, the game is focused on Switzerland and Denmark, having all the trouble in the world to stop appreciating following the declining faith in the single currency (or at least in some of its ...
A long hot weekend dito summer
Yesterday we had triple whammy : 28 Spanish banks dramatically downgraded & Moodys threatening to cut the Spanish sovereign to junk ; then came the news that Monte dei Paschi will be bailed by the Italian government through means of so-called Tremonti bonds. And finally the presentation of Herman Van Rompuy's 7 page road map ...
Growth pact - France, Chile & Sweden
With the new French winds blowing at the Elysée, the debate on a growth pact gathers momentum: briefly “piano piano” on austerity and public investment providing the growth kicker EMU urgently needs. Also the IMF issued some warnings earlier on that moving too quickly on austerity might in the end even be counterproductive. The ...
Post 06/05 reality check - If we only had time
Have we witnessed a kind of decisive paradigm shift in Europe over the weekend ? It might still be too soon to conclude this but in political terms, some important events indeed took place. In order of importance : 1) Greek chaotic election result and not workable in the short term. Already after a couple of hours, leading party ND ...














