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Impact US downgrade?
Op vrijdag verlaagde S&P de lange termijn kredietwaardigheid van de VS van AAA naar AA+. Het in het kader van het schuldenplafond goedgekeurde plan zou “onvoldoende zijn om het schuldenniveau te stabiliseren”. Het ratingbureau toont zich ook bezorgd over “verdere politieke risico’s”. Ratingbureau ‘s hebben wel ...
FOMC : Strait-Jacket BB ?
The FOMC dropped a bombshell...by doing nothing... and pledging to remain in zero-rate land for a long time. And there are several implications, some indirectly desired by Ben Bernanke, other more counter market productive and obscure. But apart from causing a last minute relief rally on stocks (600 point intra-day swing on DOW), ...
Pijnloze oplossing is fictie
(deze tekst verscheen in De Standaard afgelopen weekend) - Geert Noels, hoofdeconoom en stichter van de vermogensbeheerder Econopolis, zegt dat de tijd van schuldgedreven groei definitief voorbij is. Hij waarschuwt voor kwakzalvers die ons naar de afgrond brengen. Politici en bankiers zouden moeten kijken naar ...
The Nipponization of the US
If we use the same logic over and over again, we will arrive at the same end result. The solutions that were used by Japan, and proposed by ia. Greenspan and Krugman failed. And yet, the same school is still in power, and implementing the same policy in the US. In Europe, this school is very powerful. In 2008 they pushed for higher ...
Seeking shelter in chocolate gold bars
"Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what ...
Market Update - all eyes on 09/08 - Twist (but don't shout it out loud !)
So the ECB gave in once again in exchange for a tiny quid pro quo. It reactivated its bond purchasing program today and the effects are visible on Italian and Spanish government bonds. The price Italy had to pay was to accelerate structural reforms and cement a balanced budget into constitutional law. For now, the silver bullet the ...
15 Most Heavily Taxed Countries In The World
Barry Ritholtz is de meest invloedrijke Amerikaanse financieel-economische publicist-blogger-journalist. Hij was gastspreker op de recentste editie van de Econopolis Economic Encounters (8 juni), met een zeer gesmaakte uiteenzetting over de globale economie, de toestand in de VS, de rente, de dollar, de nieuwe media, en zoveel ...
Macro-economen moeten uit hun ivoren toren
Waarom voorspelden zo weinig economen de crisis? Wat zijn de trends voor de macro-econoom van morgen? Dit opiniestuk van De Tijd van 4 augustus covert deze vragen .
Een 'banken-ontbinder' voor Europa
Geert Noels stelde hier op vrijdag 29 juli voor om een Europese bankenliquidator op te richten. The EU should be able to close down insolvent banks. Banks should be orderly liquidated when they are in insolvency… Some banks should become smaller, some zombie banks should be closed down in an orderly fashion. A European ...
The Greek bailout: wasted money
If you ask a frog to come up with a plan for draining a swamp, you are likely to end up with a proposal for more flooding.An inverse wealth tax That is the conclusion of Harald Hau , finance professor at Insead. the bailout is unlikely to end the problems with Greece and the eurozone. Why did the EU made such a bad ...
Eurocrisis: Minsky is alive (but he is not living in Belgium)
Europe is illustrating my favorite Albert Einstein quote “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them .” We are approaching the 21st of July, which will be an important day, as EU leaders will gather to "solve" the crisis.The EU perfect stormThe crisis in the eurozone ...
Lorenzo's Roadmap for EMU (and politics in general)
In a speech delivered for the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (Isle of Poros, 08/07/11), ECB member Bini Smaghi makes some very interesting comments on decision-making in times of crisis. This 7 pager is straightforward, not revolutionary but carrying simple truths and some good advice for politicians. ...
9 hours, 4' and 33", in 3 movements
"This is a usual coordination meeting, not an emergency meeting on Italy", the official version. Vittorio Grilli, a well respected economist and head of the Italian Treasury, was present as well and sounded nevertheless a different tune. The 17 European finance ministers gathered yesterday for 9 hours and the outcome of the ...
88888 account
When Nick Leeson had a problem in hiding his first transaction losses, he created an error account called 88888. Why ? Because 8 is a lucky number in Asia (China) and so the account was labelled 5 eight because it could use all the luck it could get. It seems Chinese auditors are on the same track.Last week the official Chinese ...
China-Forest
China is slowing down. How much we do not know. Macro-economic numbers are not always reliable, but China makes a league of its own. Official growth numbers were still around 10% in Q1 2011, but they were probably closer to 6%. A story you might have missed, is the Canadian-Chinese version of Madoff. A company named ...
Trust vital in the networked economy
Consulting firms Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey both launched indicators measuring the internet-intensity of developed economies. In a "Freakonomics"-kind of spirit, we squared the result with a key element for the networked economy : trust. The OECD has developed statistics to measure the level of trust that people have in ...
EMU & Greece : A Woody Allen - Groucho Marx Approach
"I would never join a club that would allow a person like me to become a member", dixit Woody Allen (Groucho Marx). Concerning EMU, unfortunately Greece did and unfortunately European politics allowed it. Was there a case for refusal and should we have known better, a posteriori or a priori ? Let the data speak. When Maastricht was ...
Financial Crash Investigation
Central banks, Ministers of Finance, Regulators, CEO's from banks, and everybody working in the financial industry should watch "Air Crash Investigation" on National Geographic Channel. They show how the financial industry should learn and deal with every accident, even the smallest ones.Watching television is not really my ...
The growth obsession
Too often I hear that growth is the solution to the economic and financial crisis. Sound economic growth is certainly a major constituent, but not the single most important factor of a rebalancing and improvement of the global economy. First and foremost, we should acknowledge that imbalanced, unhealthy and unsustainable growth has ...
Bring back the "haruspex" please
The IMF and OECD remain quite confident that the world economy is just undergoing a soft patch. (Bank) economists have been issuing buy-recommendations on equities, corporate and high yield bonds, Greek debt and the new Coldplay-CD. The latter is a good reference point, because just like some recent Coldplay-songs, we have a ...
















