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Een zakenkabinet: zonder of met?
Mario Monti en Lucas Papademos zijn de kersverse premiers van Italië en Griekenland. Met doctoraatsdiploma’s economie van MIT en Yale op zak en topcarrières in de Europese Commissie en Europese Centrale Bank zijn het rasechte technocraten. Vormt de aanstelling van deze niet-verkozen leiders het einde van de democratie of het begin ...
EEE : Crisis update & Echoes from Brussels
At the Econopolis Economic Encounters on 28/11, we had the pleasure to have Nouriel Roubini - Dr Doom & Gloom - and Ivan Van De Cloot, Chief Economist of Thinktank Itinera. Both were asked to pinpoint the state of play of the current financial crisis, their short & long term expectations and recommendations on the way forward. Dr ...
Pick 1 out of 3
So we finally came to an agreement and every one seems to be a winner. And that's how we are selling the story to the outside world, hoping they will buy it. Because that's all in the end that matters. I think we have 3 possible outcomes of which 2 out of 3 won't do the trick and 1 has the potential to trigger some "hup hup, barba ...
Kabuki
In our previous posting, we mentioned that not a lot of safe havens still exit in the world of today. Which sovereign bond can I trust, what kind of monetary system will be there the day after tomorrow etc. Recently we have seen some strange developments occurring in financial markets, confirmed by international investors net in- ...
So markets are burying JM Keynes....
...which is sad because we only have ourselves to blame ! And I honestly mean that in every sense of the word : sad and totally misplaced political self-pitty. Keynes is to Economics what Nietzsche has been to philosophy : basically a tragic personality and most of all wildly abused. And with an ironic side-kicker as the icing on ...
US Real Politik - Boomerang Part I
Politics and adapting to the new normal, it seems a bridge too far for many amongst us. And it's not restricted to Europe with its more than fair share of anglo-saxon media attention and frequent abuse. Pretty soon, it's back to Uncle Sam.During the silly season of 2011, we have witnessed a tough battle between bi-partizan ...
2011-2030: in a nutshell
Simon Hunt, a consultant on the global economy and specialist on China, revealed his outspoken view on the world economy between now and 2030. His distinguishes two periods: the crisis years 2011-2018 and the new real era starting in 2018. We give you a brief summary and his conclusions for the next years.
Meanwhile in Frankfurt and Madrid...
...we have some busy days ahead for the financial sector. Today, bondholders of Greek sovereign paper are to meet at Deutsche Bank's headquarters in Frankfurt to discuss the "voluntary" debt swap deal arranged on 26/10. The Institute of International Finance (representing 450 financial firms and chaired by DB CEO Ackerman) has ...
AAA - A Reply to The Economist
I like the Economist and I certainly like the Buttonwood column under Finance and Economics. In its latest edition (12/11/11, p.71), Buttonwood fires at increasing European political pressure (France/Italy) to hush up credit rating agencies in an effort of censorship. And the European paranoia concerning unfair treatment is wrong ...
Shaky Foundations - When the levee breaks
"If it keeps on raining, levee's going to break. And when the levee breaks, I'll have no place to stay. Mean old levee, taught me to weep and moan, got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home, oh well, oh well..." From time to time, mother nature ...
"Real Politik" : A German Pre-emptive strike ?
Courtesy of Zerohedge and if they are right with their scope, we still can't say that we hadn't seen this one coming : Apparently Germany is silently preparing a "tabula rasa" and "cut the crap". In Thursday's Handelsblatt edition, it would appear that the following simple question would be raised : those who can and willing to ...
Ouverture 1812 without rour of guns - silent drums
It seems we have a week of urgent wake-up calls. Italy, the no3 of Europe, placed under supervision by the IMF. And Berlusconi forced to quit because Mr Market is losing its patience in view of 10 year yields now dangerously approaching the tipping point of 7%. He won't leave like that, opposition needs to vote "yes" on austerity, ...
Belgian public finances: spending above its means
Today is the day that the draft for the 2012 Belgian public budget should have been finalized. Unfortunately, in absence of a government, and in absence of any consensus, there is no such draft ready. Welcome in the country named "later" or "almost there". A quick glance at the numbers learns were the problem is situated in our ...
Entering the post 26/10 era
Yesterday's marathon meeting delivered some of the goodies, in some cases even surprisingly better than expected, in other respect still vague. And we have postponed once again some important decisions, both on the practical implementation of announcements (SPVs to fund the leveraged vehicle, quid), not a convincing attitude coming ...
Not quite there yet
The summit which was announced as the most important one of the past months (years) in the existence of the single currency, has been wrapped more quickly than expected. It doesn't however mean that the consensus on a solution has been achieved. Again, come and see next episode of...So all eyes on Wednesday to face the final ...
3 reasons why the EU wants rating agencies to shut op for a while
The Financial Times Deutschland mentioned the fact that the EU is thinking about a ban on rating agencies issuing ratings on eurozone countries. It could be said that the ratings agencies are like thermometers that provoke a rise of temperature. But this is probably not the right angle to look at this possible action. The reason ...
Towards a sovereign CoCo ?
Cocos are contingent convertible bonds and are a hot issue of debate in the current quest for banking crisis solutions, ie, bail-in instead of bail-out. It briefly implies that these bonds are automatically converted from debt to equity at a fraction of their original price - haircut - once a pre-specified threshold of bank's ...
The naked European truth
Stratfor Global Intelligence (www.stratfor.com) is an international think tank on global politics, economy and military developments. In its weekend online edition, their CEO Dr George Friedman , a widely recognized international economic and political affairs expert and author of numerous books, gives his ...
Frank Knight
If you don’t get pocket aces in your hand, the next best thing is pocket kings. After all, having the second best pair in the game before the flop is dealt almost guarantees you of having the best hand. Of course, there’s just one little problem…..pocket aces trump pocket kings over 80% of the ...
Drachmetisering van de euro
Het vertrek van Jürgen Stark kan nauwelijks overschat worden. Het komt na het vertrek van Axel Weber eerder dit jaar. De ECB zal nu in handen komen van de Italiaan Mario Draghi, met als vice-voorzitter de Portugees Vitor Constancio. Alleen een verhuis van Frankfurt naar Milaan ontbreekt nog. De reden voor het vertrek is duidelijk. ...















