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Recent stories in Financial Markets
A Primer on the "Magic Mountain"
Davos, setting of the Thomas Mann novel "Der Zauberberg" and sheltering famous people throughout history such as Arthur Conan Doyle, Robert L Stevenson and Ernst Ludwig Kirchner. Today, Davos is mainly famous for being an exclusive ski resort and the annual host of the World Economic Forum. A brief appetizer :
Sunday's Pedrocchi's "Light"
Following our adventures in today's every changing moods in the world of finance, it's not a bad thing to assess volatility as a measure of risk. And the last couple of months, in the light of the uncertainty surrounding the global business cycle and sovereign debt crisis, it's always interesting to spot the hot spots, if there are ...
It's hard to satisfy us
Unbelievable but now the FED has managed to arrive at the point where they exactly wanted to be, it seems that a growing part of voting members within the FOMC does no longer agree: “Prices of assets such as bonds, agricultural land, and high-yield and leveraged loans are at historically high levels,” George said in a speech ...
"We need something bolder..."
Let's put in a USD 550 bio extra of asset purchases, or may be on second thought, let's double that amount. After 9 consecutive rounds of QE worth JPY 100 trillion - roughly EUR 1,000 bio and some small change - the freshly elected Japanese government headed by Shinzo Abe is looking for something more, let's say, "challenging". ...
A short intermezzo by side-show Bob
I have been feeling a lttle bit under the weather but luckily, we can post some stuff with a little help from our friends. Sideshow Bob volunteered and came up with the following short consideration about the impact of Basel III going softer on banks and capital cushion requirements. It also touches the vital aspect of financial ...
Hooray, debt free... pain pays ?
Well not exactly hooray as far as the IMF is concerned : Apparently the IMF is not happy with Latvia having refunded their entire 2008 bail-out loan already. The IMF at one point even gave the advice of "piano, piano" or "we don't need so much money from you right now". The Latvians nevertheless pushed forward and now have of ...
2012 - Straight cold players - 2013
"Life without music would be a mistake" - Friedrich Nietzsche. So before turning over to the 2012 review and 2013 outlook, let's just have a quick playful stop first by way of introduction : most likely the best ouverture of all ouvertures ever made, 18th century purest form of Rock & Roll avant la lettre :
Le Trio Infernale - Change
When the Roman Catholic Church meets Ferrari meets the "Left", what do you get ? Because that's in a nutshell what is currently happening in Italy, "progressive" forces seeking change and joining forces. At first sight, they truly make an odd couple trio. Mind you, the majority of Maranello based Ferrari employees ...
And there goes the Yen ?
A couple of days ago, blogger Bruce Krasting (fx) had a nice story on the Japanese Yen. "The full name for what is familiarly known as JA is Japan Short Anonymous (JSA). The group is patterned off of AA or Alcoholics Anonymous (many JA members are also in AA). The only qualifications for joining JA are the loss of a great ...
US Banks - Geronimo on a horse with no name
Despite several headwinds facing each and every developed nation, stock markets have made a fairly good run this year. Some sectors even shined, especially in the US. And it comes from an unexpected angle when looking at this through the glass of a European observer: Financials. The S&P 500 financial sector total ...
A note on trade "butterfly" effects
Last Friday, I went to a Central Europe event organized by KBC. Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary presented themselves in terms of business cycle & public finance outlook. The session was highly interesting because some unusual features came up which made me look a little bit further. But first the main lessons to be ...
Market Update - Global banks, CDS and Fx
QE3 and the morning after, what's the score ? Well, considering it was pretty well wired, market reactions so far are not that exuberant in terms of volatility. Ben's message was simple : Nevermind the greenshoots appearing, we are going "all in", no matter. Until unemployment does not dive under the FED's 6,5% target, we will be ...
Note on the Volcker Rule
Former FED governor Paul Volcker was appointed in 2009 by the Obama administration to chair the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Volcker has ever since been focusing on systemic risk in the financial sector, more specifically the trading positions commercial banks take on. It's basically an extension or implementation ...
Bubble complacency revisited
Complacency is usually a recipe for disaster and financial markets are no exception. Most common bubbles we have experienced throughout history mainly focus on overpricing risk and risk assets, usually stocks or high yield bonds. But when it comes to bonds these days, we have been going into bubble territory deeper and deeper by ...
All right listen up everybody, this is the plan...
...and it's all about plan B, AKA "The Great Escape". There has been some speculation going on lately on how our monetary policy makers intend to normalize the unusual situation where we are in right now. Some - and probably helicopter Ben included - argue that it can become even more unusual in view of the fact that things are not ...
Market update : Not a single gun shot fired...
"Never underestimate the power of denial" - Ricky Fitts, American Beauty . It has been a while we reported on the European sovereign debt crisis so we thought it being appropriate to give a quick update. Greece finally has secured a new deal with the Troika but no new haircuts are involved. So no new debt relief. We ...
Gold, banks & The Grand Bazaar
Yesterday we picked the following story on the net under the frame work of "creative bank funding". It concerns Turkey and how to activate dead assets in a productive way. Before going into this story, a quick look on Turkey. It's a country with a chronic balance of payment problem and hence the currency is erratic, monetary policy ...
The Chicago Plan & the Magic Wand
An IMF Working Paper released in August of this year is staging a comeback in the press and blog sphere. It is titled "The Chicago Plan Revisited". It basically tackles 2 issues here : 1, a complete sovereign control over the money supply and hence an attack on private fractional reserve banking. 2, a swift solution of the debt ...
Sunday's reflection on Black Monday
We almost forgot but last Friday was the 25th anniversary of 19 October 1987, ie "Black Monday" or the day the Dow Jones took a 22.68% plunge losing 508 index points. But here the story of that specific event did not end. Because when we people made a reality check at the end of that desastrous equity month in 1987, the damage ...
Morton's Fork revisited
Last year in October, we gave you a preview on the Belgian budget annex government formation by referring to Cardinal Morton and a style figure coming out of bridge play : http://www.econoshock.be/morton-s-fork-crisis-intermezzo The term Morton's fork stems from the days Archbishop Morton was Chancellor of the ...














