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My Mood(y's) swings
Well, it's not exactly Moody's but more precisely Fitch, sending out messages which are "surprising" to say the least. Remember earlier this week, Fitch came out with pension time bomb study on which we blogged. And in the case of Belgium, it's a long way to Tipporary with a considerable chance of downgrade towards BBB in case of ...
A short intermezzo by side-show Bob
I have been feeling a lttle bit under the weather but luckily, we can post some stuff with a little help from our friends. Sideshow Bob volunteered and came up with the following short consideration about the impact of Basel III going softer on banks and capital cushion requirements. It also touches the vital aspect of financial ...
Note on the Volcker Rule
Former FED governor Paul Volcker was appointed in 2009 by the Obama administration to chair the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Volcker has ever since been focusing on systemic risk in the financial sector, more specifically the trading positions commercial banks take on. It's basically an extension or implementation ...
Un upgrade on the Nobel, if you please - Erase and Rewind
Today, the Swedish Academy on the Nobel decided to grant this year's award towards Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapley. A quick reminder here.When the academy gave its first - non official - reward, it had to be spot on. And it was because it went to Tinbergen and Frish. Now concerning Tinbergen, the award was "complete". Tinbergen in ...
The Bundesbank, 1975, 1997, 2012 ?
We have seen some remarkable shifts lately on the German political front. Yesterday, Frau Merkel wistled back its CSU coalition partner after an interview in Der Spiegel which was rather unfriendly towards Mario Draghi and Greece. In addition, in her ARD appearance, Frau Merkel was remarkably in favor of the ESM rescue ...
POSTCARD from Hamburg - ADM
At Econopolis we combine in-depth research and analysis with on-the-ground company visits around the world to find the best opportunities in this ever changing world. Yesterday, we had the unique opportunity to meet with some members of the top management from Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) in Hamburg. We talked at ...
Zijn er nog nieuwe Buffett's ?
Rond deze tijd van het jaar komt de Opperbelegger met zijn brief aan de aandeelhouders, en die wordt ook gretig door de rest van de wereld gelezen. Wie deze lectuur (en andere boeken over de man) doorneemt, moet wel gaan dromen over onmetelijke rijkdommen die door beleggen blijkbaar kunnen worden vergaard. Zelf kocht ik mijn eerste ...
House of Pain - Fed to the rescue, again
New figures on US home foreclosures were recently released and for some, it might even induce some feeling of optimism. So the worst is behind us ? Not yet, and certainly not as far as the FED is concerned. But let's first take a look at some basic stats.
The risk free carry, part II : Money for nothing and the bonds for free ?
Earlier this week, we mentioned the rally on high yield European short term government bonds in anticipation of Wednesday's ECB LTRO auctioning (Long Term Refinancing Operation). Markets had expected something in the range of 300-400 bio EUR. The final result was 489 bio EUR spread over 523 bidders, on average almost 1 bio EUR per ...
Play the "safe" EMU govie carry trade
After November's hectic month on all sorts of government bonds, ranging from PIIGS over to Belgium over to credits globally, December has kicked off under a different Zodiac sign. In fact, the latest auctions on government bonds have staged various rallies on different countries.Now the question would be : Has the Belgian state ...
Guest Post : Bonussen, beter, best?
De laatste maanden betoogden misnoegden in Brussel, Antwerpen, Leuven en Oostende tegen de inhaligheid van de banken. Het “Occupy Wall Street” protest startte deze zomer in New York en vertakt zich nu wereldwijd. Bonussen, zoals de 600,000€ voor de Dexia- CEO Pierre Mariani in 2010, liggen zwaar onder vuur. Zijn bonussen altijd te ...
"You may leave your message..."
"...after the gunshot", replies the answering machine of Herr Flick. Today, a newspaper from progressive left origin had the audacity to bundle all the reactions - or rather lack of reactions - from various members of the board of governors from Dexia and the Communal Holding. The summary is quite a revelation. On ...
Hoe de fall-out na Dexia voorkomen?
Negen punten verdienen de aandacht van het beleid om verdere schade na Dexia te voorkomen. Want de financiële crisis is met de nationalisering van Dexia niet achter de rug. Lees hier de column die Geert Noels publiceerde in De Tijd.
"Dear Jean Claude"
A "Dear John" letter is more than often an ominous sign : "I love you but, it's not easy, difficult circumstances, hope we can still be friends, etc etc ; A dear "Jean Claude" letter apparently is even worse. Yesterday, some blogs pointed to a particular "farewell letter" towards Jean Claude Trichet, presiding his last ECB monetary ...
European banks: the endgame
On the international blogosphere, economists and market watchers are trying to give an answer as to why the US (along with the central banks of Great Britain, Japan, and Switzerland) is providing dollars to European banks that have lost their ability to access dollar capital markets? John Mauldin has the following answer and ...
15 Most Heavily Taxed Countries In The World
Barry Ritholtz is de meest invloedrijke Amerikaanse financieel-economische publicist-blogger-journalist. Hij was gastspreker op de recentste editie van de Econopolis Economic Encounters (8 juni), met een zeer gesmaakte uiteenzetting over de globale economie, de toestand in de VS, de rente, de dollar, de nieuwe media, en zoveel ...
Een 'banken-ontbinder' voor Europa
Geert Noels stelde hier op vrijdag 29 juli voor om een Europese bankenliquidator op te richten. The EU should be able to close down insolvent banks. Banks should be orderly liquidated when they are in insolvency… Some banks should become smaller, some zombie banks should be closed down in an orderly fashion. A European ...
Basel, SIFIs and New Capitalism
For some months now, the Basel Committee is pondering on how to tackle the issues of systemic risk. It seems the outcome might well be something along the lines of "agreed it's moral hazard but it's OK".End of April, Reuters leaked a Bundesbank initiative to set up a so-called SIFI list (Systemically Important Financial ...
Draghi zoals Riccardo Ricco
Uit Knack:U twitterde: ‘Beseffen ze bij de ECB dat het een fout signaal is om Mario Draghi te benoemen tot directeur?’ Waarom? Noels: "Mario Draghi is zo kort na de financiële crisis niet de figuur die breekt met het verleden. Hij had een vooraanstaande functie bij investeringsbank Goldman Sachs in de periode toen de crisis ...
Rating Agencies - Charm Offensive
Rating agencies : when the music plays, you most of the time don't need them around and when the music stops, you really don't want them to be around. Yesterday, after years of not being welcome to the party, Moody's invited itself once again and guess what : They even gave a round of free drinks !
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