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Recent stories in Europe
Mr Market, EMU scenarios and credit status
A lot of scenarios have circulated ever since the Greek debt crisis escalated and we got contagion into the Mediterranean periphery. And all these elements were related to bailouts, fiscal consequences of bailouts on core European countries (eg possible eurobonds etc), too big to bail (Spain/Italy) and rescue funds, whether or not ...
Operation "Cap that Yield !"
It seems that the announcement effect of EMU bond buying did not miss its purpose when looking at how the risk-on status of the market performed over the past 4 or 5 weeks. And it is of course not restricted to equity markets world-wide, the return numbers on various European sovereigns are very impressive indeed to say the ...
Thursday's Hangover : FED - Quid ECB - Bomb shell ?
Well we had quite a colorful US morning session yesterday. In the first half hour after the opening bell, an algo trading program went bananas affecting some 148 stocks amongst which some very big names. For more info on this we refer to
Tuesday and preparing for the turn ?
Late last week, some comments have boosted markets in anticipation of putting a floor under certain asset classes (beleaguered peripheral bonds and equity markets). Now some have already made the remark "we believe it when we see it", meaning that Nowotny's comments on the ESM banking license - and certainly Draghi's one on bond ...
Wednesday's dry toast - A communication error
In our recent blog conversations, we were already alluding to this inevitable happening and I am afraid we have arrived at this point (already intra-day yesterday). The Spanish yield curve has inverted, meaning short term yields now being above the levels of of the longer part of the curve (7y+). Under normal conditions, this could ...
Tuesday's comedy capers
Just when you thought you were safe, a last minute move from our dear friends in the US are spoiling the party. Moody's lowered the outlook to"negative" for the AAA ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg (!). Yes,you read this well, even our friends over in Luxembourg - with only 3 government bond ...
A Vienna Yardstick for Brussels ?
The headlines over the coming days will be in the style of "Belgian debt perceived as core reliable AAA". And most likely a lot of politicians will grasp the opportunity to say that our present government is doing a hell of a job, just have a look at those yields (all time low 10y < 2.5%). Now we can always be cheerful about ...
The manifesto for a job properly done
Today, the following manifesto appeared in the blog sphere : "In support of a European banking union, done properly - a manifesto by economists in Germany, Austria and Switzerland". For the link, I would like to refer to : http://www.voxeu.org/article/manifesto-banking-union-economists-germany-austria-and-switzerland The ...
Catharsis and the Fischer smile
Catharsis, the emotional purification in Greek drama or the logical conclusion at the end of a play. It seems to me we are nearing such a point in the euro-zone where conflicting parties - now in full collision course in a super game of chicken - will be blessed with catharsis one way or the other. What is at stake ?In previous ...
Growth pact - France, Chile & Sweden
With the new French winds blowing at the Elysée, the debate on a growth pact gathers momentum: briefly “piano piano” on austerity and public investment providing the growth kicker EMU urgently needs. Also the IMF issued some warnings earlier on that moving too quickly on austerity might in the end even be counterproductive. The ...
"A whale stranded upon the coast of Europe"
A poetic quote coming from Irish political philosopher Edmund Burke referring to Spain. Unfortunately, the quote hasn't lost of its value because the whale has stranded in an economic sense. And it still requires some considerable assistance to find open water again. Although, despite the huge challenges confronting Europe's no4 ...
Post 06/05 reality check - If we only had time
Have we witnessed a kind of decisive paradigm shift in Europe over the weekend ? It might still be too soon to conclude this but in political terms, some important events indeed took place. In order of importance : 1) Greek chaotic election result and not workable in the short term. Already after a couple of hours, leading party ND ...
Financial Repression - The goose and the MaxiMin principle
"The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing" Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619-83), Finance Minister du Roi Soleil One of the "file rouges" and my personal pre-occupations during the current financial & sovereign ...
Banks, central banks & commodities
Manipulation and conspiracy theories are of all times. Last year, rumors surged that 1 particular giant broker in the US was doing all within its powers to depress the price of silver by selling silver futures. And the conspiracy became complete when rumors surged this was done at the request of the FED because precious metals were ...
On written and unwritten rules
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than any one else", dixit Albert Einstein. On these rules of the game, playing better and fair play, some confusion has arisen over the past couple of weeks. And the fact that it has become headline news should start ringing bells for our policy makers. A ...
















