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Recent stories in Europe
It's a long way to Tipporary...
Yesterday Fitch released a report with some arithmetics and outlook on the ageing population and how the developed west so far has anticipated on these demographic evolutions. As usual, most politicians and media take this with a benign neglect attitude : What's the problem, 2050 is still ages away ? Or in true Belgian style, it ...
Hooray, debt free... pain pays ?
Well not exactly hooray as far as the IMF is concerned : Apparently the IMF is not happy with Latvia having refunded their entire 2008 bail-out loan already. The IMF at one point even gave the advice of "piano, piano" or "we don't need so much money from you right now". The Latvians nevertheless pushed forward and now have of ...
2012 - Straight cold players - 2013
"Life without music would be a mistake" - Friedrich Nietzsche. So before turning over to the 2012 review and 2013 outlook, let's just have a quick playful stop first by way of introduction : most likely the best ouverture of all ouvertures ever made, 18th century purest form of Rock & Roll avant la lettre :
Le Trio Infernale - Change
When the Roman Catholic Church meets Ferrari meets the "Left", what do you get ? Because that's in a nutshell what is currently happening in Italy, "progressive" forces seeking change and joining forces. At first sight, they truly make an odd couple trio. Mind you, the majority of Maranello based Ferrari employees ...
Market update : Not a single gun shot fired...
"Never underestimate the power of denial" - Ricky Fitts, American Beauty . It has been a while we reported on the European sovereign debt crisis so we thought it being appropriate to give a quick update. Greece finally has secured a new deal with the Troika but no new haircuts are involved. So no new debt relief. We ...
Dutch "Modernization"
In the age of new-speak and political lexicon, the Dutch show us the way by banning that ugly austerity word and replacing it by a more social acceptable term like "modernization" and "building bridges". And above "de moerdijk", that implies some EUR 16 bio of "modern" savings, ie EUR 1,000/capita or roughly 2,5% of GDP. In the ...
An update on "Der Backstein"
Over the last couple of months, we have been focusing on "frothy" housing market bubbles in various pockets around the world, down under and in the West. And we have been focusing as well on the age of financial repression meaning zero interest rates, and what to do with our money, me, you, our pension fund. Today we will have a ...
Sunday brunch : Swedish Smorgasbord - Thou shan't leave EMU
Sunday's big easy and two stories for the weekly wrap up. First of all Sweden, being the first big European economy to engage on economic stimulus, afraid that the global slow-down will have a strong impact on the economy due to its international exposure (exports 36% of GDP). So as a head start, the government decided to boost ...
A note on Munchau and QE - unintended consequences
Today Wolfgang Munchau in the FT focuses on QE European style and why an Anglo-saxon style QE would be to be preferred. Now I would like to focus on the first part because Munchau has a very good point here, something which we recently have stressed and focused upon in another framework, cfr ...
An update on the adventures in the landscape of banking
Before taking on the most important latest novelty - the main dish - a short appetizer on 2 items which also to a great extend stress the dangers of systemic risk still present today : 1) Yesterday the central bank of New Zealand urged its most important financial players to speed up their capital adequacy requirements : ...
Ay Caramba !! Lost in translation...
Apparently we have some translation problems at the press communication desk of the ECB, more specifically the department English/Spanish. When the ECB last week launched its so-called bazooka, the message was nevertheless quite clear in plain English : With respect to governments and unlimited buying of government bonds, ...
ECB verdict : "It's a complex thing"
Before giving a brief comment on what has been decided upon today, a quick quiz show. Who is quoted for the following statement earlier this week : "Markets are not allowed to run wild and must serve the people rather than the other way around. When we look at international markets over the last five years, then we see that ...
A primer on ECB September 6 : "High time for a comprehensive approach"
That were Mario Draghi's concluding remarks speaking before European Parliament in Brussels earlier this week. Again by times a clever effort following his Zeit open letter last week where some more psychological pressure was put onto the German people. Let's see what his main message was in order to know what we can expect next ...
Some thoughts on a German Sovereign Wealth Fund
Over the past couple weeks - in facts months - we have been blogging on the future of the euro-zone and on the economic and political rationale behind recent developments. And the response in the sequential blog debates was rich and interesting to say the least, looked upon from all various angles and for which I would like to ...
The Bundesbank, 1975, 1997, 2012 ?
We have seen some remarkable shifts lately on the German political front. Yesterday, Frau Merkel wistled back its CSU coalition partner after an interview in Der Spiegel which was rather unfriendly towards Mario Draghi and Greece. In addition, in her ARD appearance, Frau Merkel was remarkably in favor of the ESM rescue ...
Mr Market, EMU scenarios and credit status
A lot of scenarios have circulated ever since the Greek debt crisis escalated and we got contagion into the Mediterranean periphery. And all these elements were related to bailouts, fiscal consequences of bailouts on core European countries (eg possible eurobonds etc), too big to bail (Spain/Italy) and rescue funds, whether or not ...
Operation "Cap that Yield !"
It seems that the announcement effect of EMU bond buying did not miss its purpose when looking at how the risk-on status of the market performed over the past 4 or 5 weeks. And it is of course not restricted to equity markets world-wide, the return numbers on various European sovereigns are very impressive indeed to say the ...
Thursday's Hangover : FED - Quid ECB - Bomb shell ?
Well we had quite a colorful US morning session yesterday. In the first half hour after the opening bell, an algo trading program went bananas affecting some 148 stocks amongst which some very big names. For more info on this we refer to
Tuesday and preparing for the turn ?
Late last week, some comments have boosted markets in anticipation of putting a floor under certain asset classes (beleaguered peripheral bonds and equity markets). Now some have already made the remark "we believe it when we see it", meaning that Nowotny's comments on the ESM banking license - and certainly Draghi's one on bond ...
Wednesday's dry toast - A communication error
In our recent blog conversations, we were already alluding to this inevitable happening and I am afraid we have arrived at this point (already intra-day yesterday). The Spanish yield curve has inverted, meaning short term yields now being above the levels of of the longer part of the curve (7y+). Under normal conditions, this could ...















