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Heat maps, Ro-Ro transformation or the great disconnect ?
Heat maps and correlation trades, that was the main theme over the past 6 to 7 years. In the charts above, it marks the dominant presence of red and dark blue spots, indicating various pairs of assets are either heavily negative or positive correlated to each other when it comes to price movements. It became known as Ro-Ro or ...
FX space billiards
"When you put all the pieces together, my guess is that the next in line will be Australia", Econoshock 16/04/13 Beggar thy neighbor in full swing. Well, it took about a month to materialize what common sense was prescribing : The BOJ exporting its problems all around the globe and its main trade partners not being ...
"Further veering up from what makes sense"
Last October, we already covered some nasty evolutions on the prices of US farmland http://www.econoshock.be/the-heartland-as-good-as-it-gets-folks It seems that today, also the FED is recognizing that extreme easy monetary policy can have its side effects and in some cases can do more harm than good. The February FOMC ...
Travel Log - Balticum
Late November I missed my appointment in the Baltics but I stated back then that one day I would visit this Nordic hub. And thanks to VOKA Antwerp Chamber I achieved so last week. What did we learn ? First stop Tallinn and a kind of shock occurred in many ways. Not only a very resilient country in the post 2008 era, but also a very ...
Death by Excel and the power of Mach 10 media
How sad, how sad to celebrate the liberty of media globalization in such a way. I am referring to the recent Rogoff-Reinhart incident or already better known as the R-R-gate. Some people discovered a mistake - an excel programmed calculation error - which puts the R-R thesis of "post crisis slow growth in a debt > 90% of GDP ...
Beggar thy neighbour in full swing...
...and we have our first victim under the category "to export your problems or not, that's the question" : South Korea. When "Abenomics" was announced for the first time late November, markets already anticipated on a huge Japanese support program in budgetary terms and in monetary terms to create inflation and weaken the currency. ...
Housing, a new business cycle shelter ?
A couple of months ago, we already discovered some green shoots in the US economy with some cautious revival signs in the housing sector after 5 years of blood, sweat and tears. Today we see that more and more optimistic surveys point to hope on the good old brick coming to the rescue once again. What's the state of play as far as ...
Liquidity carpet bombing
“The risk is we stay in this climate too long and that the carpet bombing of liquidity spurs inflation. Though there are no current signs of consumer price inflation, there is inflation, perhaps a bubble, in some asset classes. Segments of property markets across the globe, for example London, also display symptoms of this. ...
Henry Fonda
Friday and we like to take a detour to a classic movie, a Sidney Lumet 1-acter dating from 1957 starring a host of star actors, not in the least Henry Fonda. At stake is the life of a young Latino and what seems apparently to be a clear cut case for the jury, is not so straightforward for Henry Fonda. He doubts the evidence of the ...
Update BRICS and Global Finance
We shouldn't be surprised after all but today came the news that BRICS - Brazil, India, China, Russia and S-Africa - are a bit fed up with the international world of finance. Last year we already commented on the fact that they were willing to come to the rescue wrt the sovereign debt crisis in the developed world, provided their ...
Friday's "light" take on Silver
Since QE went into 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and now global with Japan trying to break world records, gold has received quite some attention. But next to gold, we have a commodity named silver and this commodity has recently returned into the spotlight. Silver is an industrial commodity but most of all it has been subject of attention ...
Russia cornered in the Mediterranean ?
Cyprus and the bail-out. Excuse me, depositors' "bail-in" deal and the visit to the hairdresser. About the rescue package and the fact that private savings' accounts are partially confiscated, already a lot of criticism has arisen. Economic sense or nonsense ? Or are other major forces at work here ? On the deal itself, it's a ...
Friday's Funny Mortgage - Cut the crap, everybody rich !
At the start of this crisis, the following slide show went across the globe. It's hilarious and at the same time very well explains what happened in the run up to the credit crisis and how everything in the end got screwed up. So before turning to 2013, please have a look at the following appetizer for today: The sub-prime ...
Giuoco pianissimo, Naval intelligence & the Belgian budget
It's budget time again in Belgium so it's always interesting to catch up with recent political statements on what we can expect from it. There was some confusion last week when Rue de la Loi thought that a majority of professional economist heralded the idea of "piano" austerity : don't exaggerate with austerity because you ...
Friday's reality check on "OIKONOMIA"
Today we learned that Belgium is still a global leader in government in governmental support of the economy when it comes to the budget. An sich this should not be a problem, provided you get something in return for what you pay for. Reality however strikes hard and even with this 51% governmental occupation on the economy - even ...
"It's not a one way bet..."
Another chapter in the ongoing stories of currency wars has kicked off and this time we have some complaints from down under. Well, not entirely because for some the problem has been solved by Mrs Watanabe 5000 miles up north. It seems the popular carry trade Aussie$/JPY has been reversed with some mass capital outflows from out of ...
Friday Fun : cash stripped auf Deutsch !
"Main country's industries: printing and production of a small amount of mosaics and staff uniforms, world-wide banking and financial activities ; Electricity production of 442 MWh from solar panels, complemented by electricity imports from Italy ; currency is EUR and for practical reasons, X is depending on Italy for practical ...
Shiny collateral - opening up a gold debate
A lot of new comments have showed up recently on gold and especially the gold fever of some central banks. The objective of this blog is to shed some light on the numbers and the possible implications going forward. First of all the numbers and more important, the evolution of the numbers. From the World Gold Council, we could ...
An investor cancer bet turning soar - empty shelves
Sometimes the inevitable just is bound to happen and what happened over the weekend in Caracas is no surprise either. The Venezuelian government decided to devalue the currency with 32% overnight. And the problem lies of course in completely wrong budgeting based upon completely wrong expectations regarding oil production and oil ...
Friday's weekly roundup : COBRA revisited
Again a week with some interesting trends in the world of banking. The good news comes from Sweden were banks are told to stop capitalizing themselves and start lending again. Rating agency Fitch proudly announced the following : "The Swedish banking sector can handle a projected slump in house prices as deep as 10% without ...















