Reacties op: Lies, damned lies and statistics http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/ Geert Noels en Team bloggen over zes economische schokken die uw leven en onze economie fundamenteel zullen veranderen Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:37:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 Door: Geert http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53776 Geert Wed, 10 Feb 2010 18:17:31 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53776 @Nick : Nice comment, I agree. @Nick : Nice comment, I agree.

]]> Door: Nick Doms http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53775 Nick Doms Wed, 10 Feb 2010 18:09:33 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53775 Whoever can state that the recession ended between 06/09 and 08/09 must have a chrystal ball. The US unemployment figures are cooked and made up to please the people: panem et cicerem. Lagging indicator or not, the only things lagging are intelligence, honesty and reality. Whoever can state that the recession ended between 06/09 and 08/09 must have a chrystal ball.
The US unemployment figures are cooked and made up to please the people: panem et cicerem.
Lagging indicator or not, the only things lagging are intelligence, honesty and reality.

]]> Door: Tobias http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53310 Tobias Sat, 06 Feb 2010 11:08:28 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53310 Is het geen betere methode om te kijken naar de werkgelegenheidsgraad/activiteitsgraad ipv de werkloosheid. ? Eind 2009 was de werkgelegenheidsgraad in de VS 58.2% Bron: http://www.businessinsider.com/employment-population-ratio-december-2009-2010-1 Dat is een grote daling als je dat vergelijkt met de grafiek uit een eerdere post hier op econoshock die tot 2008 ging http://www.econoshock.be/2010/cool-charts-on-employment/ Daar scoorde de VS nog 74% Is het geen betere methode om te kijken naar de werkgelegenheidsgraad/activiteitsgraad ipv de werkloosheid. ?

Eind 2009 was de werkgelegenheidsgraad in de VS 58.2%
Bron: http://www.businessinsider.com/employment-population-ratio-december-2009-2010-1

Dat is een grote daling als je dat vergelijkt met de grafiek uit een eerdere post hier op econoshock die tot 2008 ging
http://www.econoshock.be/2010/cool-charts-on-employment/
Daar scoorde de VS nog 74%

]]> Door: carl http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53302 carl Sat, 06 Feb 2010 08:51:19 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53302 Wat opvalt in de cijfers is het verlies in US sedert dec 2008 in de bouwsector van 1,9 miljoen jobs en dat er verleden maand in de bouw ook nog een 75000 jobs verloren gingen.Zeker geen goed teken na alle overheidsmaatregelen voor deze sector. Wat opvalt in de cijfers is het verlies in US sedert dec 2008 in de bouwsector van 1,9 miljoen jobs en dat er verleden maand in de bouw ook nog een 75000 jobs verloren gingen.Zeker geen goed teken na alle overheidsmaatregelen voor deze sector.

]]> Door: Emeline (Viviane) http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53254 Emeline (Viviane) Fri, 05 Feb 2010 23:11:37 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53254 Inderdaad, "Lies, damned lies and statistics". Lees ze ook bij de "klimaatcrisis volgens topeconoom Jeremy Rifkin". Inderdaad, “Lies, damned lies and statistics”.
Lees ze ook bij de “klimaatcrisis volgens topeconoom Jeremy Rifkin”.

]]> Door: MarcVdB http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53251 MarcVdB Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:51:46 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53251 I hate to say it because you are making a valid point, and you describe a 'statistical lie' that is common to many labor reports from the BLS. Only that... this time the lie is not in the report. The seasonally adjusted measure for U4 and U5, which is essentially the statistical lie you are talking about as opposed to the more commonly reported U3 went down. From 10,5 to 10,3 and from 11,4 to 11,2 respectively. link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm The real reason why unemployment dropped can be explained only when you are familiar with how these reports are assembled. The unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of about 60.000 households. There may be some noise in these numbers, but over the longer term they prove to be quite reliable. The employment report held quite a number of positive surprises actually, but one robin does not make a spring. The acid test will be in the continuation of positive news. Normally that would be a no brainer, because the recession ended between june '09 and august '09 and unemployment is a lagging indicator. But given the depth of the crisis, the unusual countermeasures etc nothing can be taken for granted. FYI, I am in the camp of the double dippers or at a maximum the square rooters, but the double dip will be for the second half of the year. (which the stockmarkets are anticipating right now). I hate to say it because you are making a valid point, and you describe a ‘statistical lie’ that is common to many labor reports from the BLS. Only that… this time the lie is not in the report. The seasonally adjusted measure for U4 and U5, which is essentially the statistical lie you are talking about as opposed to the more commonly reported U3 went down. From 10,5 to 10,3 and from 11,4 to 11,2 respectively. link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
The real reason why unemployment dropped can be explained only when you are familiar with how these reports are assembled. The unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of about 60.000 households. There may be some noise in these numbers, but over the longer term they prove to be quite reliable.
The employment report held quite a number of positive surprises actually, but one robin does not make a spring. The acid test will be in the continuation of positive news. Normally that would be a no brainer, because the recession ended between june ’09 and august ’09 and unemployment is a lagging indicator. But given the depth of the crisis, the unusual countermeasures etc nothing can be taken for granted. FYI, I am in the camp of the double dippers or at a maximum the square rooters, but the double dip will be for the second half of the year. (which the stockmarkets are anticipating right now).

]]> Door: Geert http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53243 Geert Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:50:57 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53243 @Herman: uiteraard wordt deze praktijk al langer in ons land toegepast. @Herman: uiteraard wordt deze praktijk al langer in ons land toegepast.

]]> Door: herman http://www.econoshock.be/2010/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-53242 herman Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:45:42 +0000 http://www.econoshock.be/?p=7321#comment-53242 Hmmm, en hoe zit dat hier ? Gaan hier geen werkelozen op den duur ook uit de statistieken (oudere werklozen, bruggepensioneerden etc) Hmmm, en hoe zit dat hier ? Gaan hier geen werkelozen op den duur ook uit de statistieken (oudere werklozen, bruggepensioneerden etc)

]]>