Lies, damned lies and statistics
Posted on 05. Feb, 2010 by Geert in Actualiteit
All media report that unemployment decreased in the US last month. So, no worries about Greece, the US is improving ! Not…
The reason why unemployment is dropping, is simply discouraged workers leaving the job statistics. The more discouraged workers leave, the more unemployment drops.
In the meanwhile, the latest batch of benchmark revisions have revealed that 8.4mn jobs have now been lost since the start of the recession, this is significantly worse than the previously estimated 7.2mn jobs over the same period, which now equates to an average of 337K per month
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herman
05. Feb, 2010
Hmmm, en hoe zit dat hier ? Gaan hier geen werkelozen op den duur ook uit de statistieken (oudere werklozen, bruggepensioneerden etc)
Geert
05. Feb, 2010
@Herman: uiteraard wordt deze praktijk al langer in ons land toegepast.
MarcVdB
05. Feb, 2010
I hate to say it because you are making a valid point, and you describe a ’statistical lie’ that is common to many labor reports from the BLS. Only that… this time the lie is not in the report. The seasonally adjusted measure for U4 and U5, which is essentially the statistical lie you are talking about as opposed to the more commonly reported U3 went down. From 10,5 to 10,3 and from 11,4 to 11,2 respectively. link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
The real reason why unemployment dropped can be explained only when you are familiar with how these reports are assembled. The unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of about 60.000 households. There may be some noise in these numbers, but over the longer term they prove to be quite reliable.
The employment report held quite a number of positive surprises actually, but one robin does not make a spring. The acid test will be in the continuation of positive news. Normally that would be a no brainer, because the recession ended between june ‘09 and august ‘09 and unemployment is a lagging indicator. But given the depth of the crisis, the unusual countermeasures etc nothing can be taken for granted. FYI, I am in the camp of the double dippers or at a maximum the square rooters, but the double dip will be for the second half of the year. (which the stockmarkets are anticipating right now).
Emeline (Viviane)
06. Feb, 2010
Inderdaad, “Lies, damned lies and statistics”.
Lees ze ook bij de “klimaatcrisis volgens topeconoom Jeremy Rifkin”.
carl
06. Feb, 2010
Wat opvalt in de cijfers is het verlies in US sedert dec 2008 in de bouwsector van 1,9 miljoen jobs en dat er verleden maand in de bouw ook nog een 75000 jobs verloren gingen.Zeker geen goed teken na alle overheidsmaatregelen voor deze sector.
Tobias
06. Feb, 2010
Is het geen betere methode om te kijken naar de werkgelegenheidsgraad/activiteitsgraad ipv de werkloosheid. ?
Eind 2009 was de werkgelegenheidsgraad in de VS 58.2%
Bron: http://www.businessinsider.com/employment-population-ratio-december-2009-2010-1
Dat is een grote daling als je dat vergelijkt met de grafiek uit een eerdere post hier op econoshock die tot 2008 ging
http://www.econoshock.be/2010/cool-charts-on-employment/
Daar scoorde de VS nog 74%
Nick Doms
10. Feb, 2010
Whoever can state that the recession ended between 06/09 and 08/09 must have a chrystal ball.
The US unemployment figures are cooked and made up to please the people: panem et cicerem.
Lagging indicator or not, the only things lagging are intelligence, honesty and reality.
Geert
10. Feb, 2010
@Nick : Nice comment, I agree.