I owe you all a short report of my meeting with Nouriel:

His economic scenario is a “U-shaped” recovery. This means a very soft recovery, with low growth and negative quarters on accasion.

Roubini does not forecast a “double dip” as his reference scenario, however the probablity is judged higher than the consensus view

The main risk is deflation, not inflation.

He does not see an immediate bubble in China.

Roubini does not believe in a “new US economy” with more durable growth, less consumption and more exports. He believes that the US citizen wants to continue to consume without any new frugality. He also wants to keep a system of “the survival of the fittest”

This last point, and some others, differ from what we believe to be the best way out for the US economy.

To summarize, I have the impression that Roubini struggles with his gloomy image. He tries to put on a more optimistic face, but keeps all (negative) options open. I was a bit disappointed by the visit, but that could be due to his jetlag – he travels a lot.
In previous years, Roubini had a very outspoken view, rather out of consensus. the current view is much more mainstream, though with a negative bias.

Toch ben je ons nog iets verschuldigd.
Wat was de algemene teneur in het gesprek met Roubini?

“I can’t help but see the gigantic amount of dollar debt that needs to be repaid which will create a demand for dollars.”

Ik loop hier al even over te denken maar zie niet in hoe dit een vraag naar Dollars kan teweegbrengen. Heb je het over overheids- of private schuld?

Verder lees je hier: http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257934/cnbc_interview_discussing_carry_trades_and_asset_bubbles wat Roubini denkt over de toekomst van de Dollar.

De antwoorden zijn niet allemaal gekomen, en ook niet altijd duidelijk.

Ik denk na op het vliegtuig wat ik er moet van maken.

“ILO says economic crisis eroding real wages for second year running”

GENEVA (ILO News) – Global growth in real wages slowed dramatically in 2008 as a result of the economic crisis and is expected to drop even further this year despite signs of a possible economic recovery, the International Labour Organization said.

Meer: http://www.ilo.org/global/About_the_ILO/Media_and_public_information/Press_releases/lang–en/WCMS_116503/index.htm

Voor wie de beursrally beter wil begrijpen, lees ‘ns op http://www.goldonomic.com/articles%20in%20full.htm , artikel van 31/10/2009:

“Few analysts have so far explained WHY the turnover on the Stock Exchanges has doubled, tripled and quadrupled since 2001. They confine themselves to yields, earnings and other lagging indicators. Not a single one understands rising stock markets are – in fact – the result of Quantitative Easing or money flowing into stocks in order to escape the horror of Fiat Paper Money. Figures of most stock markets are hard to find but the chart of the Dow Jones give a pretty decent image of what is happening all over the Western world. You have to be blind not to see this. As long as we have Quantitative Easing, markets won’t simply be allowed to crash!”

Voor de geïnteresseerden: lees ‘ns de laatste posts op http://www.fofoa.blogspot.com/ , met in het bijzonder de laatste over ‘Freegold’, die ervoor zijn minstens even leerrijk.

Me dunkt dat veel mensen nog blind zijn voor de aan de gang zijnde paradigma-shift.

Het zou me eigenlijk wel benieuwen, Geert, om je opinie over de thesis van FOFOA ivm vrijgoud te vernemen. Vergeef me dat je daarvoor z’n blog even moet onder de loepe nemen.

Ben niet de enige. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8fc.G.WUIP8&pos=5

Roubini bewijst lippendienst en blijft mooi in $-FI-gareel lopen.