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© 2009 Econoshock.be. All Rights Reserved.
Blog facilitation by Edge.be - Powered by Wordpress | Copyright © 2009 Econoshock.be
Nick Doms
06. Nov, 2009
The unemployment rate in the US will continue to go up although at a slower rate than before.
The real rate is now well over 19% when factoring in the real count. The reported number (unrealistic) is 10.2%.
This trend will continue throughout the latter half of 2010 if the economy starts picking up, which i do not foresee to happen until well into 2011/2012.
Productivity is at a high level, but we all know why.
The housing market is not recovering yet and we still have a serious risk in the CMBS market.
We will see and wait.
Sincerely,
Jan P
06. Nov, 2009
Toffe interactieve kaart; Als je schuift met de balk onderaan zie je Katrina in het Zuiden als het ware voorbij razen…
Jammer wel dat je niet kan verder schuiven dan 2010; Dan wisten we wat er zou komen
Opvallend ook dat de situatie in Canada stabieler is; Ik heb mijn green card alvast aangevraagd!
Hoewel; Nu ik er over denk; Europa zal wellicht nog stabieler zijn? Zelfs nu in de hoofdstad van de wereld (Antwerpen) een fabriek zal sluiten?
In alle ernst; Het ziet er toch heel slecht uit. En als dit klopt zie ik het ook niet zo snel counteren. De consument die de economie zal moeten aantrekken is een uitstervend ras…
Theo
07. Nov, 2009
In December 1982 unemployment rate was 10.8%. It took until August 1987 for it to go down to 6% (NYTimes).
It’s funny to think that all that, back then, was the result of high interest rates. Today we are back there due to too low interest rates.
Theo
07. Nov, 2009
I forgot to mention… back then, the economy only picked up after the Wall came down, the oil contracts were signed in the days of the first Gulf War and Clinton was elected.
What will it take this time?
Jan P
07. Nov, 2009
@ Theo
I don’t know what it will take this time to turn things around, but kicking Bush and electing Obama was a good start!
Too bad yet what GM is doing…
In both cases trust is the key-word…
Nick Doms
07. Nov, 2009
I don’t know about politics, but next year is a big election year.
Secondly, GM is not doing anything and GMAC is already asking for a second bailout.
But, besides that, yes we are looking at high unemployment that is comparable to what Theo mentioned: we are partying like it is 1983 and we are not finished yet.
granted that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, still it does not bode well for the immediate future.
By the time Obama delivers on his promise to create 3.5 million jobs, he will need about 20 million.
Sincerely,
Herman
07. Nov, 2009
Als ik die grafiek , wel daar wordt ik niet vrolijk van. Dit gaat nog jaren puin ruimen zijn.
En voor de mensen die nog denken dat het snel weer business as usual zal zijn (zoals in de pre-2007 tijd), wel wake up.
We gaan nog jaren een lage economische groei en hoge werkeloosheid hebben
carl
07. Nov, 2009
The number of jobs lost since Mr Obama came in as president is between 2,7 and 3,8 million.
With only 130 million jobs in the US Economy president Obama is now 7,8 million jobs short of what he promised.
The Keynasian theory ignores how government borrowing to finance deficit spending automatically reduces demand elsewhere.
The ratio of total debt of the credit market to GDP in US is 375 percent.
Central Bankers are prisoner of inflated asset markets.
Banks have become hedge funds.
The FED wants to have more credit growth and again more LEVERAGE.
But look at Europe : Fifty % of the EU budget is going to agriculture..Why don’t they focus more on areas like R and D?
Workers in Europe should welcome the decision by General Motors ‘s decision to scrap the sale of its European division,since they prefered the management they know.
Look at the efficiency of the plants : In Antwerp the Astra and the Astra twin Top : 25,2 hours per unit to assemble and the Astra and Astra Van in Ellesmere in the UK : 23,2 hours to assemble.
Total Labour cost per hour in Opel Antwerp is 35,84 euro per hour and in Ellesmere UK it is 27,19 euro per hour.
A difference of 43 % per assembled unit or 272 euro per unit.
Nick Doms
07. Nov, 2009
Also take into consideration how the unemployment figures are being calculated.
It may seem that the number of new unemployed goes down on a monthly basis, and i don’t doubt that to be the case, but a factor that plays in these reported figures is also because people have been shifted from one program to another Gov’t program (stimulus) and therefore no longer count against the published figures.
We are fooling ourselves to create a positive sentiment while in essence we are still waiting for the other side of the hurricane to hit us.
Sincerely,
Theo
07. Nov, 2009
@ Nick Doms
Yes, this kind of systems was invented in Europe.
Last week I found out that in Belgium the unemployed are actually counted as Government employees!
I read your “outlook” on your website. Your point about “Productivity” is very interesting.
If we look back at all income increases due to productivity increase… and couple that with whatever reality might be… it’s an economic growth disaster!
How long have we actually been digging our own grave? so to speak.
@ Geert
Can this be measured?
Is it possible that in the last 15 – 10 years we have actually haven’t had any real productivity and GDP growth? which would explain our need for industries’ need for debt and our private consumers’ relative loss of assets value? is this how asset bubbles are created?
On the other hand, during the same period, we have developing economies with actual productivity and GDP growth…
Geert
07. Nov, 2009
@Theo and Nick: in my view, GDP growth has been stringly overestimated in the USA, but also in Europe. In the USA:
* hedonics
* increasing use of guestimates
* lower deflators
* contribution of inventories
* effect of China-imports
* credit-driven GDP growth
etc
In Europe;
* government outlays
Nick Doms
07. Nov, 2009
@ Theo and Geert
Yes i briefly touched upon how productivity figures are being used in the US.
This is why it becomes increasingly important to look at the top line instead of the bottom line when companies report earnings.
EPS at this time does not mean anything anymore, but revenue streams determine what the future will bring from a GDP perspective and an unemployment perspective as well.
Sincerely,